NHC TRACK

[Derecho]

[
I think there is still some ideas at the NHC that they want to keep the forecast off the coast as long as possible.

I think NHC has been keeping the 5 day forecast position for Frances offshore...

Because they think in five days Frances will still be offshore.

Shocking.

[golter]

I agree, get off the NHC. Do you think for a minute they worry about being wrong. I for one dont, they do the best they can. They want to give the most accurate forecast they can. They are not your local mets that sensationalize everything. There is not a NHC tv station. Its off the shore because they think it will be off the shore. Do you honestly think they call all the computer model people and say "we need this baby to hang off the florida coast for 5 days"

There are not any conspiracies.

[Guest]

I don't think anyone should call anyone else a wishcaster the people on the EC have a right to be concern myself one of them this is uncertain. i saw models this morning that shows her right on top of where i live. the gfd.and nogap at 5 am were showing her hit NC in 8 days I don't know how true these models are but it sure has my attention. people should be nice , someone on this board could lose a love one a home without power for weeks.etc..if they are hit remember this before you call names and i am being nice i don't wish this on anyone

[CaneCurious]

This is my first post on this site but I have been a "lurker" for two years since Isisdore and Lili were threatening my area. I am in New Orleans, you know the "fish bowl" and I was wondering if there was still a possibility for Frances to take a more Andrew track and cross Florida into the GOM and affect ME!

[golter]

Anything is possible, but at this time the forecast does not call for that. That could change.

[ChaserUK]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

The NHC has actually changed the track some. Before...the 4 and 5 day points had it curving to the NW...and on a 300.

Now...they have it moving at 310 from days 4 and 5 with a lot less poleward curvature. If you extrapolate the 1st one out...it comes into SC. If you extrapolate the second one out...it comes into north Fl/GA.

I think there is still some ideas at the NHC that they want to keep the forecast off the coast as long as possible. Once they decide on where they think landfall will be...you will see the track shift in that direction and stay there. From day 3 to day 5 they only move it at 7 kts...and that's a little slow for a storm like this to move for 2 days straight. BUT...if they moved at at 10-12 kts they would have to bring it inland somewhere.

SO...I think they are keeping everyone on pins and needles as to avoid wholesale panic. Once they get a handle on it...that's when we can start talking about people I disagree with and the NHC is wrong and stuff. They aren't wrong on this...as you have said...they are just waiting as to avoid a panic because 200 miles of error is a big deal on the EC.

Thanks AFM...that does make total sense in the sense of creating a panic...however it is not good for "science" to "fudge" the numbers in a more positive light until more confident

Indeed, but I have heard that sometimes more people can get injured in the rush to get away than by the cane itself.

[Air Force Met]

I agree, get off the NHC. Do you think for a minute they worry about being wrong. I for one dont, they do the best they can. They want to give the most accurate forecast they can. They are not your local mets that sensationalize everything. There is not a NHC tv station. Its off the shore because they think it will be off the shore. Do you honestly think they call all the computer model people and say "we need this baby to hang off the florida coast for 5 days"

There are not any conspiracies.

Nobody is ON the NHC. I say this from experience with talking to some individuals who work and have waorked there.

AND (a little vocal there)...I have listened to the intergovernmental METCONS and NHC conference calls and heard it out of Avila's mouth. Not on this storm but on previous storms. They've done it before and they will do it again. I, for one, am not saying it is bad to do it...because of the media alone. It's a good thing.

To answer your question...no I don't honestly think they call the computer people. Get real. I do, hwoever, know what I have heard them say...which being part of the government does have some pirks you may not enjoy (which does give me some right to an informed opinion...yes?)...and I get to listen in on behind the scenes stuff.

I can give you one specific example. It was several years ago with Georges...and they thought it was going into LA. I heard either Lawrence or Avila (can't remember which) say it on the METCON...but also say they were going to keep the track as is and adjust it a little to the west....but they were really looking at a track much further west. Lucky for them...it paid out and stayed on course because the GFDL was nailing the track of the storm.

So...if you want..along with Derecho...to say that this is really where they think it is going to be and that's why the track is where it is. Then that is fine. However...I know for an obsolute fact that they do this stuff...because I have heard them say it in the conference calls. When Sheets was director...I heard him say "sometimes we hold of on a forecast until we get a better idea of the final track. It costs millions of dollars to put a warning out for the coast."

Believe it or not...I don't really care. You can have your opinion. I am just telling you that they do it. Guess I will keep any info gained from the conference calls to myself in order to avoid confusion as to what they are really thinking.

[MSRobi911]

Please don't hold back, most of us appreciate and look forward to your informed comments.

Thanks again,

[MSRobi911]

Please don't hold back, most of us appreciate and look forward to your informed comments.

Thanks again,

[cape_escape]

Please don't hold back, most of us appreciate and look forward to your informed comments.

Thanks again,

Ditto!

[feederband]

did not think that nw track would pan out..

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

If the ridge weakens ...could be interesting