Real quick point...and I have been unable to connect for most of the day.
Even though the TPC forecast has shifted in line with much of the guidance (especially the EURO that has been advertising FL for 158 runs in a row)...the idea that things can still change should not be lost. This thing could still miss SFL to the south or turn right in front of the peninsula...based on subtle changes the guidance that cannot currently be resolved.
No one from Key West to Cape Hattaras should let their guard down. Now that the storm is closer to a possible landfall the error rate will inherently go down...but the TPC as good as they are is not 100% perfect on 5 day forecasts. Please be prepared and do everything you should have down at the beginning of the season TODAY if you are in any of the regions listed above.
Folks in the Bahamas the threat is more immediate...and the chances of Frances missing every island in the Bahamas are remote. Please review your hurricane plan now and be prepared to act as soon as watches are issued.
Due to work issues I will be unavailable until 9:00PM or so this evening...see you then.
MW
Given Today's Track...Please Remember...
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