BAMMBAMDBAMSLBARGDFLAVNNHC -- Sheez! Which One Is Best?

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NFLnut
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BAMMBAMDBAMSLBARGDFLAVNNHC -- Sheez! Which One Is Best?

#1 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:25 pm

I knw they all base their trajectories on different data, but over the long run, which tends to be most accurate for a storm like this (as if there's ever been 'a storm like this').

Oh .. I forgot the UKMET, the ECMWF, the ...

Just for laughs .. did anyone catch the latest NHCA98?! It shows F going into Miami for "a quickie" and then back 180-degrees to the Bahamas!! :eek:
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#2 Postby joseph01 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:56 pm

Just for laughs .. did anyone catch the latest NHCA98?


Hey!...are you dissing NHCA98? I liked that one!

LOL
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#3 Postby Innotech » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:02 pm

ignore the GFDL and GFS, they are trending towards Carolinas while misjudging the strength of the Ridge.
The others are more on the money, but osme more than others. Im really not sure, other htan to avoid the north outliers.
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#4 Postby The Big Dog » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:05 pm

I don't know much about the differences, but some models are used for more specific purposes. My understanding is you can dump the BAMS for a storm like this, as it is used on badly sheared systems, not Cat 4 hurricanes. NHC isn't a model, but rather the NHC's forecast track, which is largely based on a consensus of the other models.
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#5 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:08 pm

Oh, I forgot GUNA which I know is also a consensus of 4 models. I haven't been able to find a GUNA graphic for two days now, as the one site that had it has gone "premium" now.
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#6 Postby zeeman66 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:10 pm

the GUNA track is being shown on hurricane alley's model page
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#7 Postby The Big Dog » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:12 pm

zeeman66 wrote:the GUNA track is being shown on hurricane alley's model page

Yeah, just pulled it up. They are going premium soon, too, though. Supposedly tomorrow. Great timing.
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#8 Postby NFLnut » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:25 pm

That's where I was getting it. They actually had a notice up on it last night that they had already blocked access to it. I guess they are again allowing access until they actually go premium.
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