Weakening Ridge?

#1 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:49 pm

NHC 5pm discussion indicates they were tempted to move hte track North due to Gfdl and UKMet anticipation that the ridge will weaken. Why is every one so convinced this will be a S Fl event? I did noticed there has not been one major hurricane to hit between Juno Beach and the Ga SC border in the last 100 years. Maybe this one will eliminate that record. Just a thought.

Waiting in St Augustine

dennis1x1 · #2 Postby **dennis1x1** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:51 pm

everyone is convinced because its easiest to draw a straight line through the previous direction.

#3 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:52 pm

local met said there is also a strong cold front coming down from alaska and moving fast?? wonder what affect, if any, that will have?

x-y-no · #4 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:53 pm

Yeah, Avila must actually find the idea of the storm punching through the ridge persuasive.

Wish I could understand why - I think it's really improbable looking. Wouldn't mind if it happened, though.

#5 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:54 pm

I think you are right Dennis! As for the cold front, I think we are beyond salvation at this point. Just a matter of when, where and how strong. Someone will probably get 10 hours of hurricane force winds. I can't even imagine!

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:54 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:local met said there is also a strong cold front coming down from alaska and moving fast?? wonder what affect, if any, that will have?

The trough in the west should enhance the ridge in the east. Yin/Yang.

At least that's how I understand it.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:57 pm

We still have plenty of model runs hinting at this to be a south to central FL event. They would include 12 and 18Z Eta, 12Z MM5 extrapolation, and several models in development at FSL and NCAR (WRF, RUC, RUC-WRF). These are all mesoscale models and are much more keen on smaller scale features that will become increasingly important as Frances nears the coast. Few of them weaken the ridge enough to take her north to GA or SC. While these models can certainly have their problems, I put a lot of faith in them for various reasons. For some of these it will be a big test, as they are still in development. The GFDL at 18Z also shifted southward, and this trend has been noticed over the past several runs. It is still north of everything else - but trending further west w/ time.

x-y-no · #8 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:59 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:everyone is convinced because its easiest to draw a straight line through the previous direction.

Well last night a straight line still pointed at Cuba. Haven't seen anyone predict a Cuba landfall lately.

And as of now, a straight line still points at the Keys. Haven't seen anyone predict a Keys landfall either.

#9 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:01 pm

Thanks Purdue! Good point on small scale features not being picked up as well on North track models. Off to surf!

x-y-no · #10 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:06 pm

18 Z GFS is complete to 72 hours - looks like it's still going to punch her through the ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

#11 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:09 pm

these models are starting to get on my nerves.... :eek:

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:13 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:these models are starting to get on my nerves....

LOL! Yeah ... me too. :-)

Weakening Ridge?

Weakening Ridge?

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