Evening thoughts/ Frances forecast

[SouthernWx]

My thinking hasn't changed much the past 72 hours....hurricane Frances continues to grow in size, and is a very dangerous hurricane, and appears to be on a track toward Nassau and the Florida east coast. It's interesting to note that currently Frances has an even lower central pressure (938 mb) than hurricane Donna (945 mb) did when in the same area near the Turks and Caicos Islands in September 1960.

Although the GFDL (and GFS) model guidance continues to prog landfall farther north into Georgia and South Carolina, I have serious reservations with both the 12z and 18z GFS runs. A stall just offshore Florida....followed by a rapid movement north-northwest and north inland....only to stall again over the northeast U.S. for several days just doesn't appear to be feasible. Neither are the two "phantom" tropical storms that seem to appear out of nowhere...

The GFDL and BAMM models are run off the GFS...so if it's "out to lunch" (off-base), then these other track models will be also. That's why I'm discounting them in my analysis tonight. Not only does other model guidance bring hurricane Frances inland across Florida, but so does past Florida hurricane history.

This powerful hurricane originated, tracked, and is currently located in the area where most of Florida's historic severe hurricanes also did. The track is similar to the severe Palm Beach county hurricanes of 1928, 1933, and 1949....as well as the Great Miami hurricane in 1926, the severe Keys/ Texas hurricane in 1919, and hurricane Donna.

I also have concerns that a hurricane as large and intense as Frances will make a sharp turn up to the NNW or north. There isn't a strong trough coming into place as occurred with hurricanes Isabel last year or hurricane Floyd in 1999. I do foresee hurricane Frances recurving.....but it will likely be a rolling, gentle curve...not sharp as the GFS model suite progs.

That's I'm forecasting Frances to pass near or just northeast of Nassau, and impact the southeast/ east central Florida coast Friday night or early Saturday....while my "forecast line" crosses the coast in the Palm Beach to Jupiter area, the angle at which Frances approaches means only a small shift in track will mean a large difference where landfall occurs. For example...if Frances deviates 50 miles left of my forecast track near time of landfall, it will mean a direct hit on Miami. Conversely, if the track near landfall is only 50 miles to the right, landfall will occur near Melbourne...located 125 miles up the Florida east coast.

One other point.....Frances is becoming a very large hurricane, and IMO will be even larger at landfall in Florida. If landfall occurs near or just north of West Palm Beach, hurricane conditions will likely be experienced along the coast from near Miami all the way to Cape Canaveral; and gale/ tropical storm force winds will cover most of the peninsula as well as portions of southern Georgia. Hurricane force winds will extend well inland....because a large hurricane weakens more slowly over the peninsula, because part of the large circulation will remain over the very warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal waters.

My latest thoughts and forecast:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/

[rainydaze]

Thanks for your post southernwx.....I know who you are now! Remember me Rainydaze?

Well, I'm glad to hear your opinion. This is the storm you've always worried about, isn't it?

Well, I'm worried too because I live in North Palm Beach County.....yikes!

I used to live in a wood frame house, but 9 months ago we moved here into a CBS house. So I guess were gonna board up and ride it out.

Take care, Marie aka Rainydaze

[Lebowsky]

Thank you for giving us your thoughts.

[logybogy]

Excellent forecast, Southernwx.

Everything you write is getting verified by the 11pm discussion from the hurricane center.