FXUS62 KTBW 020730
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FOR TODAY...E/NE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS FRANCES DRAWS NEARER TO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS
ON THE LOW-END SCATTERED SIDE WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND COASTAL CENTRAL ZONES AS A WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SET UP
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
WITH CURRENT NHC TRACK...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
FRI AS FRANCES MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING FRI AFTERNOON AS SOME
OF THE INITIAL FEEDER BANDS MOVE OVER THE STATE. THE TRACK HAS
FRANCES MOVING ONSHORE ON THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS FRANCES MOVES INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON AS WELL AS STILL RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
(SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS)...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
INLAND HURRICANE/TS WIND WATCH. I WILL HOWEVER ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES (POLK...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO) AS
THE GROUNDS THERE ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND THIS AREA HAS THE
BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE WIDE-SPREAD HEAVY RAIN GIVEN CURRENT TRACK.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...JUST WHEN EVERYTHING SEEMED TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR A UNIFORM SOLUTION OF LANDFALL ON THE FL COAST
FOLLOWED BY SOME MOVEMENT INLAND BEFORE A GRADUAL TURN...THE
DISAGREEMENT HAS RETURNED...AND HOW...THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES: 1) FRANCES SLOWS TO A CRAWL
IN THE COLL...THEN TURNS NORTH AS WESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND TEARS
EAST BY SUNDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY AND PICKING
UP FRANCES WITH A GRADUAL ACCELEATION. 2) FRANCES JUST KEEPS ON
TRUCKIN' AT 290/10-12 KT AND ROLLS THROUGH THE PENINSULA...SOON
(LATE FRI INTO LATE SAT).
FAVORING SOLUTION (1) CONTINUES TO BE THE GFS...AND AT 00Z THE
ETA. THE BAM MODELS (OFF THE GFS) FOLLOW SUIT...AND SO DOES THE
GFDL THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST. SHOULD THIS
SOLUTION VERIFY...IT WILL CAUSE QUITE A BUILDUP OF SEAS/SWELL ON
THE EAST COAST...BUT LEAVE ONLY A 12-24H PERIOD OF FEEDER BAND
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE E CWFA...INTO SUNDAY (DAY 4).
FAVORING SOLUTION (2) CONTINUES TO BE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND
UKMET MODELS. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...MOST OF THE ACTION WOULD BE
FROM LATE DAY 2 INTO DAY 3...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SAT NIGHT
OR SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT NHC FCST OFFERS A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS A SAFE BET
UNTIL (WE HOPE) THE HURRICANE DECIDES WHAT IT ULTIMATELY WANTS TO DO
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE LARGELY LEFT THE GRIDDED
DATA ALONE...BUT HAVE DECREASED WINDS/SEAS A BIT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
PER EXPECTED RAPID DECLINE OF WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK. OWING TO THE FCST TIMING...HAVE BACKED DOWN SLIGHTLY ON PCPN
CHANCES SUNDAY.
SW FLOW OF REMNANT TROPICAL AIR SHOULD RESUME BY TUE AND PERHAPS
INTO WED...KEEPING PCPN CHANCES UP A BIT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
N/NE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN TIDY UP THE DETAILS ON ALL OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
FCST LATER TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
HURRICANE FRANCES WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS 20-FOOT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE WITH HURRICANE FRANCES. OTHERWISE NO
CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 76 91 76 / 40 30 30 40
FMY 93 75 91 75 / 30 20 40 40
GIF 93 74 91 75 / 30 20 40 40
SRQ 92 75 91 75 / 40 20 30 40
BKV 92 72 91 72 / 40 20 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&