7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, September 2,2004

[vbhoutex]

Very dangerous Hurricane Frances continues her West-northwestward track across the Bahamas Islands this morning. Her winds have increased to 145 mph with gusts to 180 mph. Some fluctuations in these wind speeds can be expected as Frances goes through Eyewall replacement cycles and continues over bathtub warm waters. Hurricane force winds extend out 80 miles from the center of Hurricane Frances while tropical storm force winds extend 185 miles from the center of the Hurricane. Currently the location of Frances is at lat. 23.2N, long. 73.5W which is about 470 miles East-southeast of Palm Beach, Florida in the Southeastern Bahamas near Mayaguana Island. Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas Islands including the Turks and Caicos. Due to Hurricane Frances' continued movement on a West-northwest track at 13 mph with no northwesterly turn evident or expected for at least the next 24-36 hours Hurricane watches are in effect along the East Florida coast from from Craig Key Northward to Flagler Beach, FL and include Lake Okeechobee. Tropical storm watches are in effect from Craig Key Southward to Seven Mile bridge including Florida Bay. Hurricane Frances currently has a central pressure of 939mb or 27.73". With outflow continuing to be impressive in all quadrants no weakening of the current strength of the hurricane is expected prior to landfall sometime late friday or early saturday along the Southeast Florida coast. In fact winds could reach Category 5 status for a while during the fluctuations experienced during eyewall replacement cycles. The continued WNW track and speed of the hurricane will probably require that Hurricane Warnings be initiated in some areas on the Florida Southeast coast later this morning. All persons in the areas under Hurricane watches and warnings should be rushing to completion all preparations to protect life and property. If officials tell you to evacuate, do as they say and leave for a place of greater safety. Many coastal areas on the East coast of Florida are already beginning evacuations. We can not stress enough that Hurricane Frances is a VERY DANGEROUS storm and current track guidance takes her almost clear up the center of the Florida peninsula still at Hurricane strength and almost all areas of the peninsula and indeed the entire state except possibly the far Western panhandle can expect to feel effects from Frances. Many areas of the peninsula can expect to feel winds to Hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin there are two areas of disturbed weather. Both have the potential to become tropical depressions over the next few days. One is located about 1000 miles WNW of the Cape verde Islands and the other is a few hundred miles Southwest of the islands.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin no tropical storm development is expected through Friday.

This is NOT AN OFFICIAL product. For official products contact the NHC or your local NWS office for details of the effects of Frances in your area.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)