Bad New for GOM if this Verifies

[LowMug]

The HPC posted this in their preliminary discussion this morning...the final discussion comes out about 3PM EDT.

Any thoughts on this my anyone...

THE 00Z NOGAPS...CAN GLOB...AND UKMET HAVE COME INTO EERILY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES ACROSS THE FL PNSLA FROM
PBI THRU THE TBW/SRQ AREA IN THE SHRT RANGE...WITH THE 00Z NCEP
ENS MEAN ALSO HINTING AT THIS AS MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE MORE SWLY THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...MOVING THE SYSTEM
INTO THE GOMEX BY THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDR PD. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK TRENDED SWLY TOWARD THE NEWER GUIDANCE..BUT STILL KEEPS THE
SYS OVER LAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS IT BY DAY 4/MON...TAKING IT DOWN
TO BARELY TROP STORM STRENGTH AND THEN LIFTING THE REMNANT LOW NWD
INTO THE CHA AREA ON DAY 5/TUES. EXTRAPOLATED THE NHC TRACK TO
GET A DAY 6/WED PSN OVER THE ILN CWA BEFORE ABSORBING THE SYS INTO
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WLY TROF ON DAY 7/THURS.


CLARK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[Brent]

It's certainly possible. The latest UKMET has it basically moving west from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to SW of New Orleans(giving them an onshore flow).

[Agua]

Yeah, reads like they're simply describing what the models are doing. You can see that yourself by looking at the models. Nothing new there.

[PurdueWx80]

00Z Euro has similar track to UKMET (actually strengthens over NE Gulf)...then sits for 3 days over AL as trough to the north passes by and leaves her in weak steering currents. Last night's 06Z Eta also shows a ridge building to the NW and W of the storm...which would probably mean slower movement in the Gulf as well.

[Brent]

00Z Euro has similar track to UKMET (actually strengthens over NE Gulf)...then sits for 3 days over AL as trough to the north passes by and leaves her in weak steering currents. Last night's 06Z Eta also shows a ridge building to the NW and W of the storm...which would probably mean slower movement in the Gulf as well.

We really don't need any rain up here. We've had the summertime stuff for months now, we've had a lot of rain in this area but some areas are high and dry. Either way, if this thing stalls or moving very slowly, it's going to dump a LOT of rain. We got 4" last year from Bill and it was moving at 15 mph AND passed on the other side of the state. The NHC track is right over me this time(between 4 and 5 days).

[HouTXmetro]

So with the west trend, is it possible the UkMET & other models can move further south and put more of the Gulf Coast at risk?

[skysummit]

It's certainly possible. The latest UKMET has it basically moving west from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to SW of New Orleans(giving them an onshore flow).

This would definately be the worst case scenario for New Orleans. Water would push up into Lake Ponchartrain overflowing its banks and water would push up the marshlands of the south. Not to mention New Orleans is already 6 feet below sea level so it would already be flooding from the rains. I'm from deep south La., (about 50 miles south of N.O.), and I remember little ole Juan...74 mph winds but it tracked right along the coastline for days and we had 8 feet of water in subdivisions....over 4 feet inside our home.

God help us if this track were to hold true.

[AlabamaDave]

I saw the UKMET track this morning and was really really hoping that was implausible. We have a lot of family in the New Orleans area. I recall reading that a hurricane approaching NO on that trajectory is the absolute worst case scenario. Elena *almost* pulled that stunt in 1985, and we evacuated in the middle of the night just ahead of her landfall in Mississippi.

[bfez1]

Ok, I am really getting nervous now. This would be catastrophic for the New Orleans area. It would be the "big one" that they have talked about for yrs. It would wipe NO off the map coming up the Miss river.

[skysummit]

Ok, I am really getting nervous now. This would be catastrophic for the New Orleans area. It would be the "big one" that they have talked about for yrs. It would wipe NO off the map coming up the Miss river.

I wouldn't worry too much about it right now. It's only one model showing it. Plus, you have Bob Breck to protect you! Now....if Nash Roberts comes on the air, you're in trouble.

[HollynLA]

I believe that Nash has retired for good but you're right, you always knew to look out when Nash came on with his dry erase board. Kinda funny though, cause he was usually right on.

Of course, right now, we have to focus on FL and where is will affect them the most, if it does move into the GOM, welllllll............. dam, don't even wanna think about that one. With waters as hot as they are, who knows.

[BayouVenteux]

A round of chill pills for everyone, myself included. I think that, considering the gravity of the situation in Florida, we northern Gulf Coasters should try to keep the frightened conjecture to a minimum and not get whisked away by every model run that paints a threat to each of our particular sub-regions. We all know that they are going to change back and forth another 10,000 times over the next 72-96 hours, so let's try to keep calm, at least for the sake of our fellow posters facing down Frances in the Sunshine State. There will be time to raise the panic flag IF and WHEN Frances re-emerges into the Gulf.

In the meantime, if you haven't done so already, it would be a very good time to do some calm preparation...the kind we should all do at the start of every season, i.e. a hurricane "survival" kit, a digital photo home inventory for insurance purposes, making sure all your important personal papers are easily accessible, etc.

Because it will only take one to really screw up your life for a while...and the indications are that if not Frances, there's likely to be another potential threat not far down the road.

[rbaker]

even the GFDL and GFS have come futher west, so the nw turn occuring earlier is not happening, and with every degree of west movement comes a more ominous threat to fla, and possible gom.