12Z Eta AND GFS

[PurdueWx80]

showing excruciatingly slow motion as Frances approaches SE FL coast. Eta in near FLL, GFS goes in very close to the NHC track...but slower. Maps in a sec....

[PurdueWx80]

GFS at 66 hours:


It is basically near or just east of this location for 12 hours by this time. It also initializes the 500mb heights MUCH better this morning - so we can start having a little more confidence in it. The fact that both of these models are showing very slow motion near landfall really creeps me out. That would only prolong the heavy winds (and rain) and cause more damage than if she were moving at a steady clip. If it stays over water a little more, that could mean the possibility of intensification as those SST's are near 30C.

[PurdueWx80]

While the 12Z GFS follow a track almost identical to the NHC, the 12Z GEM takes a track exactly like the 06Z UKMET - into E-central/SE FL then on to New Orleans with a hit from the E to ESE.

[calidoug]

12Z ETA isn't going in at FLL-- it's also somewhere between WPB and Port St. Lucie, like the 12Z GFS...

Watch the loop and reference this:

http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/FL1.htm