"Spaghetti Map" is Worthless, Misleading Garbage

[Derecho]

I'm beginning to see it and links to it all over the web, even on non weather boards, and Drudge.

Despite the disclaimers on it, I suspect NOBODY is actually going deeper into the site to the various web pages where the models are labeled.

Many of the tracks on the spaghetti map are multiple versions of the same worthless models that NHC basically ignores...such as two versions of the A98E, several versions of CLIPER, etc. It gives a false impression of "the models being all over the place" when actually they're in fairly good consensus.

To a non-weather enthusiast, without labels, the various models have "equal weight."

Without labels, people don't have the curiosity to ask what the various model names are or how good each is.....or what each model represents and how it works.

As chatters know I've been trying to do my own model maps with irrelevant models deleted, but I can't keep it updated continously, and given that it's a comcast personal page perhaps might not stand the hits of a site known nationally.

SOMEBODY with bandwidth has to do an educational model site that dispels myths, not creates them..ideally with quick links to a page explaining each named model in layman's terms.

[x-y-no]

Yes - I absolutely agree.

Without careful explanation of their design and limitations, many of these models are worse than useless.

I'd like to see a plot of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL and the consensus line and the TPC forecast. That would be much more representative of the real model guidance.

[birdwomn]

your point is well taken

I only look at it or show it to someone else to explain that there are many different models available and what a model actually is, as opposed to a forecast.

To see all the different possibilities of models sometimes brings it home that it is a world of possibilities and probabilities, not a forecast. And it is kinda pretty

[dhweather]

But it has pretty colors!

[JMGNole]

As a newbie, I like the fact that the a98 is included. It reminds me that some of them are looney.

I'm sticking with Ortt until I have a reason not to.

[hurricane_lover]

link?

[Ola]

Excellent post Derecho. But I dont think many non-weather-enthusiast are actually looking models up. Well i sure hope not, not if they live in Florida.

[depotoo]

here is a decent one
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif