06z models

[yoda]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

Discussion -- All models now have the landfall slightly north of where the NHC one is...

A98E has SERIOUS ISSUES right now and should be disregarded.

The LBAR/GFDL take Frances out of FL, into WC GA, and then move it NNE from there. The BAMM and BAMD do the same, but move it directly N, with maybe a NNW movement.

That leaves the UKMET, which is the outlier here. IMO, disregard it.

Comments welcome.

[logybogy]

Forget the models.

Explain the WNW movement of "the blob" that's what I'm calling her nowadays after the eclipse.

The blob looks like it's going to Palm Beach.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[yoda]

Forget the models.

Explain the WNW movement of "the blob" that's what I'm calling her nowadays after the eclipse.

The blob looks like it's going to Palm Beach.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What movement? Its really gone nowhere.. maybe a slight wobble WNW...

[siobhan222]

I do not see the picture on the page you posted Yoda. Is there somewhere else to see the models you mentioned?

Siobhan

[yoda]

I do not see the picture on the page you posted Yoda. Is there somewhere else to see the models you mentioned?

Siobhan

Ah sorry 'bout that.

Go here: http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Then click "Show me the plots." You should have your map then.

[siobhan222]

Thank you. Very interesting models. When were these generated?

Siobhan

[yoda]

Well these runs were generated about an hour ago... but they change with each run.

[siobhan222]

How often do they run them?

[yoda]

They run at 0z, 6z, 12, and 18z. Z stands for Zulu time.

[siobhan222]

Zulu time? Really? Or are you kidding?

So what do you think Yoda. Is Frances falling apart here or does she still have potential to intensify again?

[yoda]

Zulu time? Really? Or are you kidding?

So what do you think Yoda. Is Frances falling apart here or does she still have potential to intensify again?

Yes, Zulu Time is what the letter Z stands for, and that IS what is used. Hmm... well that is a tough call. I think it is trying to restrengthen, but as Derecho said in his post about the SW shear, it may be just trying to hold itself together.

[siobhan222]

I hope the latter is true.

I wonder what the next NHC update will say. That might be telling.

[yoda]

I hope the latter is true.

I wonder what the next NHC update will say. That might be telling.

I will have the next update posted on here in about 30 mins or so.

[cape_escape]

I hope the latter is true.

I wonder what the next NHC update will say. That might be telling.

I will have the next update posted on here in about 30 mins or so.

Thank you Yoda!

[yoda]

I hope the latter is true.

I wonder what the next NHC update will say. That might be telling.

I will have the next update posted on here in about 30 mins or so.

Thank you Yoda!

You are all welcome!

[siobhan222]

Oh great Yoda. Thank you. Do you get it earlier than they put it on their site?

[yoda]

Oh great Yoda. Thank you. Do you get it earlier than they put it on their site?

Yes. You can get it from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical about 10-20 mins before you see it on NHC.

[siobhan222]

Awesome. I did not know that. Thank you so much Yoda. You are very very helpful.

[yoda]

Awesome. I did not know that. Thank you so much Yoda. You are very very helpful.

You are very very welcome!! Feel free to ask me any questions you have!

[siobhan222]

Well of course the one big question I have is will it hit here and I don't think anyone can answer that with any certainty unfortunately!

If you could, I'd really appreciate a "weather for dummies" explanation of what these shears and ridges and troughs mean. I'm not understanding what the "talking heads" on TV keep going on about.

Thank you.