8:00am STORM2K ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, SEPT. 3, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Overnight Hurricane Frances has become weaker and has slowed down in forward speed. She has been impacted by dry air and Westerly shear. However she still remains a very large hurricane capable of doing major damage. Currently Hurricane Frances is laocated near 25.3N, 76.4W or over the island of Eluethra, which was recently reporting sustained winds of 100 mph, about 260 miles East-Southeast of the lower East Coast of Florida. Sustained winds in Frances have decreased to 120 mph with gust to 140 mph. Hurricane force winds extend up to 85 miles from the center of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds extending up to 185 miles from the center. Further weakening is not likely and as Frances moves over warmer waters she may reintensify some prior to landfall. However no explosive reintensification is anticipated. Hurricane warnings remain in effect from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach along the East coast of Florida. These warning include Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane warnings also remain in effect for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect from Florida City southward along the Florida Keys to Seven Mile Bridge and include Florida Bay. Frances has also slowed her forward speed overnight and is moving West-Northwest at 9 mph. A further decrease in her forward speed is possible as she continues moving towards the East coast of Florida. The latest minimum central pressure reconnaissance has reported is 957mb or 28.26". Even though Frances has weakened she continues to be a dangerous Category three storm. Near and to the north of where she crosses the Florida coast storm surge tides of 6-11 feet can be expected along with large battering waves. since Frances is expected t slow to a crawl(4 mph) just prior to landfall the hurricane conditions in the core areas will probably be prolonged much more than normal. guidance suggest that Frances will continue on her current WNW-NW track for the next 24-36 hours and then begin a more Westerly track as she is coming ashore and across the state of Florida followed by a turn back to the NW and N as she responds to an incoming trough during the 48 hour and beyond time frame. This should take the path of Frances across the South-central and Central portions of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico to the North of the Tampa Bay area later this weekend before the turn back to the NW and N begins and takes Frances to a second landfall somewhere in the Florida panhandle, probably as a much weakened tropical storm or at best a minimal hurricane. If Frances' forward speed becomes higher than anticipated the intenisity at anticipated second landfall will have to be adjusted upward since she would have less interaction with land to disrupt her and the landfall location could move further west also if this happens. It is very important to remember that Hurricane Frances is a very large and still dangerous Category 3 hurricane and she is expected to produce damage over a very large portion of the Florida peninsula, not in just a small area very close to the eye. Persons in the path of Frances in the warned and watched areas should be rushing all preparations to completion and heed the instructions of law enforcement officials if ordered to evacuate.

Tropical Storm Ivan has formed in the far Eastern Atlantic near lat. 10.0N, lon. 30.7W or about 610 miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. He is moving to the West at 16 mph. This motion and speed is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Top winds in Ivan are 40 mph with some higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected as Ivan conitnues westerly. Estimated central pressure in the storm is 1005mb ir 29.68".

An area of low pressure located about 1225 miles East-Northeast of the Leeward Islands is moving Northwesterly around 10-15 mph and appears to be better organized this morning. However it is moving into an area of marginally favorable conditions for development and development if any will be slow to occur.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin tropical storm formation not anticipated through Saturday.

This is not an official product. For offical products contact the NHC or your local NWS office for details of the weather and storm effects in your area.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)