One Thing to Look For...

[MWatkins]

Deep convection is redeveloping in a band on the western side. As this happens there is a chance that the center of the hurricane will move toward to the deeper convection and make a little jog to the west.

The presence of this band suggests that perhaps the hurricane may be trying to get better organized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW

[scogor]

Mike, it is always reassuring to hear your voice of reason!! How are you faring over on the east coast?? We cancelled our trip to Virginia this weekend believing that it would nearly impossilbe to fly back to Tampa on Sunday. The party we would have attended here on Saturday night if not for our Virginia trip has also been cancelled due to the uncertainty of the storm's path and intensity. Feel like I am watching an "east coast" reply of Elena. Same weekend in 1985.

PLEASE keep posting so we can have some clue of what to look for as Frances meanders along...

I share your gut feeling that intensity will increase before landfall...and continue to anticipate a westward jog...

[kevin]

Thanks Mike! Please keep us up to date..

[CaptinCrunch]

I agree with mike, Frances looks to be getting her act back together, and the SUPER warm waters of the gulf stream will only aid in her redevelopment

[Lowpressure]

That and recon now mentioning an open eyewall.

[frederic79]

MIke,
Quick question. If Frances stalls for an extended period of time (Miami radar appears to show very little movement as we speak), could that affect the track significantly compared to the current projections?

[kittcat]

Looks like you can really see that its trending towards the coast. Looks to me like to will go right over Lake O approaching from the south.

[MBryant]

At what point does the stall over the gulf stream which promotes developement become offset by upwelling in the shallower waters?

[sponger]

upwelling will have minimal impact as the gulf stream will continually replace the displaced warm surface water

[PurdueWx80]

Since convection is wrapping around the western and southwestern sides of the storms, that is good a good indicator of relaxing shear over the storm. As long as it is maintained she can do nothing but strengthen as teh outflow is still quite good in almost all 4 quads.

[sponger]

Welcome back Purdue, will need your input to figure out what this storm is doing!

[vbhoutex]

I accidentally deleted the message to Mike asking about the Miami radar and the apparent stall it was showing.

The answer to that question is that Frances is not stalled, the Miami radar was down. It has been repaired and should be up and running very soon. This was addressed in another thread here at HH.