The gulf stream

[hurricane_lover]

What will happen once she gets over these warmer waters?

[chris_fit]

Tom Terry (local met) call for her to get up to a cat4 and possibly even cat5 reallllllly quick.

Says water temps are around 88

[hurricane_lover]

Yes, that 1 or 2 degree diffrence in water temp can make all the diffrence in the world.

[Dave C]

He's aggressive! That could happen if not for dry air entrainment and some SW shear. Definately hair-pulling time.

[Air Force Met]

What will happen once she gets over these warmer waters?

She'll probably turn north and head for the Carolina's. That's what I've been trying to tell you people

</sarcasm>

Sorry...couldn't resist.

[vbhoutex]

vbhoutex wrote:
From the local discussion out of Melbourne NWS.

SAT-MON...WHILE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND SLP CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY RISE OWING TO CONTINUED WRAPPING IN OF RELATIVELY LOW PWAT
AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR FROM A H20 CYCLONE WHICH FORMED SOUTH
OF CUBA ...RECON CONFIRMS REFORMING OF A BROKEN EYEWALL AND IT'S
PRESENTATION ON VIS/IR SATELLITE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT/SAT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LINGERING
ALONG FRANCES' WRN FLANK INTO THE ERN GOMEX. IT'S SLOW MOTION WILL
ALLOW FRANCES TO LUMBER NWWD OVER HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM. ALSO...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H20
HIGH CENTER SOUTH OF CUBA DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING AS AN
AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAUSES A RIDGE TO POP FROM
THE NRN GOMEX INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO PLACE FRANCES IS
AN AREA OF LESSENING SHEAR IN THE COL BTWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE ONE OVER THE WRN ATLC. FRANCES SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
HOLD HER OWN.


That's a very insightful discussion. I was noticing that Miami and FLL's dewpoints were down in the 60's for a few hours - so the storm was throwing some of that dry air all the way to the surface. That and the shear is obviously what has been weakening her. It makes sense to me that the slower she moves, the more dry air she'll be able to mix out (by mix out I mean that the storm will be able to mix in more moist air from the surface and get rid of the dry air, as long as it doesn't keep getting ingested in). If this happens, and the shear lessens as forecast, it is entirely possible to regain strength. How much depends how long she sits over the Gulf Stream without having much land interaction. I honestly think everyone should still prepare for a Cat 4 - not that a Cat 3 is better, but her otherwise excellent satellite presentation seems to indicate regeneration is possible.

A good possibility of strenthening-how much will depend on the factors such as those discussed above.

[ColinD]

Max Mayfield said Frances doesn't have the structure for a likely quick intensification. Windfield too spead out.

[tronbunny]

I like Tom Terry..
He was right on for Charley.
But I'd like to know what data he's basing his latest predictions on.
I love NHCs Stewart, and I'm becoming a fan of NWS MLB forecaster Hagemeyer.

Any insight ?

[hurricane_lover]

That shear is about gone. And yes met, she could still turn north and come up to the Carolina's. That's not likely now, but still possible.

[Air Force Met]

That shear is about gone. And yes met, she could still turn north and come up to the Carolina's. That's not likely now, but still possible.

Wasn't very likely before either...

[ColdFront77]

Channel 9 Eyewitness News (WFTV-TV/Orlando) Chief Meteorologist Tom Terry also has
been saying that it takes more time for a storm the size of Frances to restrengthen.

Charley was two to three times smaller, thus it's three to four hours to reintensifity.

[tronbunny]

With her current forward progress (or lack of) anyone have a calculated guess how much time she'll have over that warm-water-gas-station?

Channel 9 Eyewitness News (WFTV-TV/Orlando) Chief Meteorologist Tom Terry also has
been saying that it takes more time for a storm the size of Frances to restrengthen.

Charley was two to three times smaller, thus it's three to four hours to reintensifity.

[THead]

too long, according to NHC track, not showing landfall til 2pm saturday. 20 hours from now

[Hyperstorm]

That shear is about gone. And yes met, she could still turn north and come up to the Carolina's. That's not likely now, but still possible.

Hmmm.....I thought you lived in Miami...

[hurricane_lover]

I do.

[bwstg]

What will happen once she gets over these warmer waters?

She'll probably turn north and head for the Carolina's. That's what I've been trying to tell you people

</sarcasm>

Sorry...couldn't resist.

lol lol lol. You funny, lol lol

[hurricane_lover]

word. That was funny.

[bwstg]

What will happen once she gets over these warmer waters?

She'll probably turn north and head for the Carolina's. That's what I've been trying to tell you people

</sarcasm>

Sorry...couldn't resist.

lol lol lol. You funny, lol lol