Hurricane Frances update and in depth analysis

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at Hurricane Frances shows a steady state intensity wise this evening after a weakening state over the past 24-36 hours. However never assume this weakening trend means Hurricane Frances is not dangerous because you've made yourself a deadly mistake if you assume that.

Hurricane warnings remain in effect this evening from Flagler Beach, Florida southward to Florida City, Florida including Miami, West Palm Beach, and Melbourne, Florida. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northwest Bahamas. However the hurricane warning that was in effect earlier today for the central Bahamas has been discontinued at this time as the eye is over the northwest Bahamas.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from Florida City including Florida Bay southward to the 7 mile bridge. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Fernadina Beach, Florida including the Jacksonville area.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Frances was centered near latitude 25.9 north, longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles east southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island or about 200 miles east southeast of the Florida lower east coast.

Frances is tracking towards the west northwest at near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track, Frances will affect the northwest Bahamas tonight and then the eye will make landfall late Saturday afternoon along the southeast Florida coast. Assuming the eye is 192 miles away from the southeast coast of Florida, you divide that by 8 mph forward speed and you get at least 24 hours until projected landfall. With somewhat slower forward motion expected prior to landfall, the landfall time potentially could occur between 24-30 hours from now, which puts it around the Saturday evening and night time frame. The projected landfall location is expected to be anywhere from West Palm Beach northward up to the Melbourne area. However a track somewhere in between if not closer to West Palm beach seems like the most likely scenario. This could mean Vero Beach is in the direct path of this hurricane. A track further north is not expected since high pressure is centered over the Mid Atlantic States, hence a southeast Florida landfall near Vero Beach.

Frances is a large hurricane relative to wind potential. Maximum sustained winds are up to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations are likely during the next 24 hours. However Frances is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall Saturday evening and night and could even strengthen a bit more prior to landfall. A category 3 at landfall is the most likely scenario at this time.

Minimum central pressure is down to 959 mb or 28.32 inches. The minimum pressure earlier was up to 961 mb. It was at 949 mb at this time last night and it was 938 mb Thursday morning. Remember the lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane.

Storm surge flooding of 6-14 feet above normal sea level is expected near the eye of Frances over the northwest Bahamas. Storm surge flooding of 6-10 feet is possible to the right from where the hurricane strikes land along the Florida coast meaning north of the circulation. Storm surge flooding of 6 feet or higher is possible in the Lake Okeechobee area. Major to severe beach erosion is expected along the Florida east coast due to the slow movement of this hurricane. Waves are already battering the beaches well ahead of the hurricane better known as wave setup. The surge will begin to pick up later tonite into tomorrow in areas north of the center along the Florida east coast. The wave action on top of the surge will cause major coastal damage along the coast. Remember it's the waves that destroy, it's the surge that floods, and the combination of the two are absolutely devastating to the coast. Dangerous rip currents will occur from Georgia all the way up through the coast of Maryland where a high risk of rip currents is expected throughout the Labor Day Holiday Weekend. My biggest concern with this system is extremely heavy prolonged rains, which could last for 24-36 hours over the Florida peninsula. Rainfall totals of 20-35 inches are possible if this system moves at less than 5 mph. A forward speed of 10 mph would result in 10-15 inches of rainfall. The rainfall aspect of this storm has me very worried. Thus folks who have evacuated into shelters better be in high ground away from flood proned areas as major devastating flooding is expected not only along the coast, but inland as well.

Don't let your guard down at all because you've made a deadly mistake if you did in Florida. Another update will be issued later tonight.

Jim

[rainstorm]

great info!!