Movement of Frances...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Windfall

Movement of Frances...

#1 Postby Windfall » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:11 pm

I got a better way of tracking the motion; observing the miami radar. This radar indicates France taking a westerly course. If it stays on this path, then the broward/palm beach countyline could face landfall.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kamx.shtml
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:20 pm

Satellite and radar are giving nothing as far as any turn. So, I'll stick with NHC until I see some obvious movement of the entire storm body.

I see hints of a curve west, but it isn't translating into any actual movement. I think we are seeing the High trying to turn Frances, but her massive mass was stronger than the slot high. So, a compromise of a slow down and NW track ensued.

I'm now thoroughly convinced that the dry air and shear are much worse than we realized and this storm is being slowly worn down. It isn't showing it because she was so strong that instead of blowing off like a badly-sheared storm she simply slowed and wound down...

- Off for sky observations before it pours. Back later...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#3 Postby FritzPaul » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:27 pm

This site's radar is udated more often, and isn't getting slammed like NWS Miami radar.
0 likes   
Top
THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#4 Postby THead » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:31 pm

frances just isn't moving much at all.....gonna be a soaker
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#5 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:49 pm

Radar is the best indicator for track.

This storm is either slowing to a stall or shifting west towards Palm Beach as we watch. No doubt it is slowing even more...


Pretty soon we have to look for some crazy movement...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#6 Postby Ixolib » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:15 pm

Sanibel wrote:Radar is the best indicator for track.

This storm is either slowing to a stall or shifting west towards Palm Beach as we watch. No doubt it is slowing even more...


Pretty soon we have to look for some crazy movement...


Not gonna go backwards - east - is it???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#7 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:59 pm

Recon has indicated a quite steady WNW motion all day at 7-8 kts. You can't really see that well on radar yet because there isn't a well-defined center on radar. The storm is right on track, heading for the coast near PBI-Ft. Pierce in a little over 24hrs. It hasn't stalled.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#8 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:03 pm

Ixolib wrote:Not gonna go backwards - east - is it???
<P>I think the Cape Verde islands are probably safe from Frances. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hurricanemike
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 197
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:33 pm
Location: Jacksonville,FL Beaches/Duval County
Contact:
Contact hurricanemike

#9 Postby hurricanemike » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:11 pm

its not moving W and its moving very slowly NW-NNW and is nearly stalled.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 352 guests