Compared to the 11 PM Advisory. Almost all models now say west for 12-24 hours and then a slight turn to the wnw and then so on and so forth.
Models:
ALSO IT COULD RE BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HRS!!
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 46
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 05, 2004
Frances is just inland from the southeastern coast of Florida west
of Stuart. The last report from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicated a central pressure of 960 mb right along the
coast. Since that oservation...a pressure of about 963 mb was
reported by the Florida coastal monitoring program tower at Port
Salerno Florida. Doppler velocities at about 5000 feet have also
decreased to around 105 kt...so the initial intensity has been
decreased to 85 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 275/07. A solid ridge remains to the
west through north of Frances. The ridge is expected to remain in
plcce for the next 12 to 24 hours...so there may be wobbles to the
west and northwest from time to time...and even a decrease in
forward speed. However...the general motion should be a west to
west-northwestward track like the past several days. After 24
hours...a strong mid-level trough over the central U.S. Is forecast
to move eastward and gradually erode the western portion of the
ridge...allowing Frances to turn northwestward and then northward
by 48 hours. It is possible that by 96-120 hours...Frances may
merge with a frontal zone and cease to exist as a tropical cyclone.
The forecast track brings the center of Frances back over the very
warm water of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours.
Although Frances will continue to weaken over land...the large
circulation should remain well organized...especially above the
surface...which could lead to significant re-strengthening by 36
hours. It is possible that Frances could regain hurricane intensity
by 36 hours if it takes a more westward track and remains over the
warm Gulf of Mexico longer than currently forecast.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/0900z 27.2n 80.5w 85 kt...inland
12hr VT 05/1800z 27.9n 82.0w 60 kt...inland
24hr VT 06/0600z 28.8n 83.6w 50 kt...over Gulf of Mexico
36hr VT 06/1800z 29.9n 84.8w 60 kt...inland
48hr VT 07/0600z 31.5n 85.9w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 08/0600z 34.0n 86.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 09/0600z 37.5n 84.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 10/0600z 42.0n 80.5w 25 kt...inland
$$