Accuweather 9 AM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

POSTED: September 5, 2004 9:03 a.m.


HURRICANE FRANCES HAS MADE LANDFALL AT SEWALL'S POINT NEAR STUART, FLORIDA


As of 9:00 AM EDT Sunday morning, Frances was located near 27.5 north and 80.9 west or about 35 miles east of Sebring, Florida. This is also 110 miles east-southeast of Tampa, Florida. Frances is packing winds of 90 mph with gusts to 110 mph. The hurricane is moving to the west at 8 mph. This motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, bringing the center of Frances near Avon Park, Florida by early Sunday afternoon. Regardless of the exact position of the center, central Florida will be battered by wind gusts of 60 to over 100 mph especially along the central and southeast coast of Florida from New Smyrna Beach to Jupiter Inlet and inland across Osceola, Okeechobee, Glades, Hendry and Highlands Counties. A wind gust of 124 mph was reported at Port Canaveral in Brevard County.


A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...AND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA UNTIL 2 P.M. E.D.T. SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Frances has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph making the hurricane a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Frances has begun to slowly weaken since its now mostly over land. Since the area of strong winds and strong convection is so large where the center of the hurricane tracks through Sunday is not all that important. Hurricane-force winds (greater than 74 mph) extend out to 85 miles from the center in some portions of the storm and tropical storm-force winds (39 mph plus) extend out to 200 miles from the center. With this in mind, much of Florida will have winds gusting to 60-80 mph at times through much of Sunday with higher gusts over the central east coast. Jupiter Inlet had a gust to 91 mph Saturday morning, and 70-mph winds whipped through Boynton Beach. Winds were still gusting to 90 mph at Freeport in the Bahamas Saturday evening and West Palm Beach was reporting wind gusts of 80 to 100 mph as of Midnight early Sunday morning. Very heavy rain will be a major problem over the next few days. Parts of Florida will pick up 10 to perhaps 20 inches, leading to widespread flooding. Storm surge waters will start to subside Sunday morning. But very large waves will continue to create severe overwash and severe beach erosion through Sunday. The cyclonic flow around the hurricane will also lead to the formation of tornadoes. These kinds of tornadoes will develop quickly and fall apart quickly with little or no warning. Tornado formation is most likely in northern and central Florida.


As of 5:00 A.M.. EDT Sunday Ivan has become the 5th hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season. Hurricane Ivan was located near 9.7 north and 44.3 west, or about 1210 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 75 mph, and some intensification is expected over the next 12-24 hours. The storm is moving west near 21 mph. Computer model output continues to show this system moving nearly due west for the next several days, then taking a gradual turn to the northwest. Current trends in satellite images suggest Ivan is in a good position to intensify into a stronger hurricane on Sunday. Long range forecast models take Ivan into the Caribbean Tuesday night then into the north central Caribbean by the end of next week. There is great uncertainty where this system will end up toward the end of next week.

We are still monitoring two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located at 26 north and 46 west a little more than a thousand miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 28 north and 28 west or 1150 miles southwest of the Azores. Both features still have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. This shear might relax over both and there is some chance both features could become organized tropical systems within the next day or two.