Sunday morning update: Ivan and Frances

[obxhurricane]

--TFCTSU--

NEMAS-TFC

Tropical Storm Update

National Environmental and Meteorological Association

11:43 AM EDT Sunday, September 05, 2004



Hurricane Ivan



**Current position and forecast track**



Latest position and intensity:

9.9 North, 46.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 75 knots/ 85 mph.

12 hour forecast:

10.5 North, 50.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 85 knots/ 95 mph.

24 hour forecast:

11.2 North, 53.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 90 knots/ 105 mph.

36 hour forecast:

12.3 North, 58.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 100 knots/ 115 mph.

48 hour forecast:

13.5 North, 62.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 105 knots/ 120 mph.

72 hour forecast:

15.5 North, 65.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 110 knots/ 125 mph.



Storm Discussion:

Ivan continues to strengthen. In fact...the cyclone has made history by being the
strongest tropical cyclone south of 10N in recorded Atlantic basin history. The
cyclone has a spectacular satellite presentaion with a well defined eye...cold cloud
tops around the eye...and well established outflow in all quadrants. Vertical wind
shear is forecast to remain low...and sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track are plenty warm...thus continued steady strengthening is forecast during the
72 hour forecast period. This forecast takes Ivan through the Lesser Antilles as a
major hurricane.

Ivan remains south of a deep layer ridge. Large scale guidance remains in good
agreement taking Ivan generally westward with a bend to the WNW in time. This
forecast is more or less an average of the NHC 12Z model suite.


OVERMAN











--TFCTSU--

NEMAS-TFC

Tropical Storm Update

National Environmental and Meteorological Association

11:13 AM EDT Sunday, September 05, 2004



Hurricane Frances



**Current position and forecast track**



Latest position and intensity:

27.7 North, 81.2 West - Highest sustained winds: 80 knots/ 90 mph...inland.

12 hour forecast:

28.0 North, 82.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 50 knots/ 60mph...inland.

24 hour forecast:

29.1 North, 83.3 West - Highest sustained winds: 60 knots/ 70 mph...over water.

36 hour forecast:

30.0 North, 84.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 60 knots/70 mph...making landfall.

48 hour forecast:

31.0 North, 85.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 45 knots/50 mph...Inland.

72 hour forecast:

34.0 North, 84.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 30 knots/ 35 mph...Inland.



Storm Discussion:

Fances made landfall along the Florida Gold coast around 1 AM this morning. The
cyclone is now moving WNW across the Florida
Peninsula at about 7-8 MPH. On this track Frances should emerge into the Gulf of
Mexico in about 12-18 HRS. The forecast track then takes the cyclone over the Gulf
for a brief period before making a second landfall in Florida Panhandle in 36 hours.

There is some potential for strengthening once over water...and this is reflected
in the forecast. The main threat from Frances will now focus on flooding rains as
the cyclone moves ever so slowly across Florida. These flooding rains will
eventually spread over AL/GA/TN and WRN NC with time. Of course with strong winds
and saturated soils...downed trees and power lines will still be a threat...but the
potential flooding along the track of Frances is severe.





OVERMAN