Accuweather 12 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 5, 2004 11:47 a.m.


HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA


As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday morning, Frances was located near 27.7 north and 81.2 west or about 25 miles northeast of Sebring, Florida. This is also 80 miles east-southeast of Tampa, Florida. Frances is packing winds of 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph, and is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. The storm should gradually weaken while moving through central Florida today, but it will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico tonight, after which it can strengthen some again before making landfall tomorrow afternoon in the Florida panhandle. In the meantime, though, torrential rainfall will be a problem over much of Florida as the storm moves through, as many places will have 10 to perhaps 20 inches of rain before it ends. This will lead to widespread flooding problems. The heaviest rains at this time are falling from north of West Palm Beach to south of Jacksonville and into central parts of the state, near the center of the storm. In addition to the rain, tornadoes are possible today over northern and central parts of the state. Winds gusting 60-80 mph will be common, especially in squalls, and gusts past 80 mph can still occur over central and northern parts of the east coast of Florida. In fact, there was a gust to 124 mph this morning at Port Canaveral in Brevard County. Tides can remain 3-5 feet above normal this afternoon in northeastern parts of the state as well as for Lake Okeechobee. A storm surge of 3-6 feet can develop over northwestern Florida as the storm approaches, with 1-3 feet over the rest of the west coast of the state.


All warnings for the Bahamas have now been discontinued. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Destin. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from the Suwanne River southward around the Peninsula to Deerfield Beach, and for all of the Keys, including Florida Bay and Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm warnings also remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound.


Looking further into the future, Frances will move up through the Florida panhandle on Monday afternoon and night, then north to northwestward into Mississippi, then Tennessee. Flooding rains will likely accompany the storm through this region, as will the threat for tornadoes near and east of the center. The winds will diminish, however, while the storm moves northward.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Ivan, the 5th hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season, was centered at 9.9 north, 46.0 west, or about 1,040 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is moving toward the west at 21 mph, and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. A general west-northwest track is then expected to continue over the next few days, taking the storm into the Caribbean later Tuesday or Tuesday night then into the north-central Caribbean by the end of next week. There is great uncertainty where this system will end up toward the end of next week. As for strength, maximum sustained winds are 85 mph, and strengthening is expected over the next few days.


We are still monitoring two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located at 26 north and 46 west a little more than a thousand miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 28 north and 28 west or 1,150 miles southwest of the Azores. Both features still have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. This shear might relax over both and there is some chance both features could become organized tropical systems within the next day or two.