N 05.09.2004 [SUN SEP 05 2004]
1854 UTC [01:54 PM CDT]
HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)
Hurricane Frances continues to weaken over the Florida Peninsula and track to the W to WNW. Previous track forecasts have been quite accurate and strength forecasts a little off, but she has maintained herself quite well over the peninsula. Strength Forecast: I expect that she will exit the W Coast of FL as a moderately strong tropical storm, and she will make landfall in the FL Panhandle as a moderately strong Category 1 hurricane. There is a slight chance of reaching minimal Category 2 strength if she does not speed up. Position Forecast: I expect a landfall in the western FL panhandle based upon a steady w to wnw motion across FL. I do not expect a sharp right turn in the GOM as that does not look feasible at this moment. I am basing this on previous right biases of models and the leftward correction of them.
WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL 65 KT
NEXT ADVISORY 60 KT
12 HR: 55 KT
24 HR: 70 KT
(NOTE LANDFALL IN APPROXIMATELY 30 HOURS WITH 75 KT WINDS)
36 HR: 65 KT...INLAND
48 HR: 50 KT...INLAND
72 HR: 30 KT...INLAND
96 HR: 25 KT...DISSIPATING/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120 HR: 20 KT...DISSIPATING/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
GENERAL GULF COAST LANDFALL PROBABILITIES
NEW ORLEANS, LA TO BILOXI, MS: 06%
BILOXI MS, TO PERDIDO PASS, FL/AL: 17%
PERDIDO PASS, FL/AL TO SEASIDE, FL: 45%
SEASIDE, FL TO APALACHICOLA, FL: 22%
APALACHICOLA, FL TO ST MARKS, FL: 10%
HURRICANE IVAN (09L)
Ivan has been explosively deepening over the past 12 Hours...and I expect this to continue through today. I do expect Ivan to become a category 5 hurricane based on current satellite presentation, etc. It will be very interesting to see the hurricane hunter reports on Tuesday. Strength forecast: Winds should continue to rapidly increase and pressure should rapidly decrease. I do expect concentric eyewall cycles to begin once the ED phase is over. This should allow Ivan to stay a category 5/occasionally weaken to a 4 into the Caribbean. Position forecast: I expect a general WNW motion to begin sometime tomorrow, and for Ivan to pass through the Windward Islands near Barbados. Afterwards, I expect Ivan to pass over or very near Hispanola...which would generally weaken it, but it would most likely begin to restrengthen as it heads over the south central Bahamas towards S FL or the GOM.
WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL: 100 KT
NEXT ADVISORY: 110 KT
12 HR: 130 KT
24 HR: 145 KT*
36 HR: 150 KT*
48 HR: 150 KT*
72 HR: 150 KT*
96 HR: 150 KT*...NEAR HISPANOLA
120 HR: 90 KT...OVER WATER
*NOTE: CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD VARY THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 105 KT AND 165 KT AT ANY POINT IN TIME.
***END
Comments on the Atlantic [05.09.2004, 1854 UTC]
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DoctorHurricane2003
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