** WTNT41 KNHC 052036 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE
REMAINS QUITE LOW...975 MB... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SHOULD BE
OVER WATER FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
AGAIN BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.0N 82.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W 65 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 06/1800Z 29.7N 85.0W 65 KT...MOVING INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 09/1800Z 39.5N 81.5W 10 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 10/1800Z...INLAND
$$
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current data were found.
5PM Frances Discussion, T.S.
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5PM Frances Discussion, T.S.
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Hurricanehink
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** WTNT21 KNHC 052035 ***
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z SUN SEP 05 2004
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 82.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 200SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 82.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 81.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.7N 85.0W...MOVING INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 10 KT...GUSTS 15 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 82.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT21 data were found.
** WTNT31 KNHC 052035 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 28.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH GUSTS BUT
FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 975
MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z SUN SEP 05 2004
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 82.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 200SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 82.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 81.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.7N 85.0W...MOVING INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 10 KT...GUSTS 15 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 82.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT21 data were found.
** WTNT31 KNHC 052035 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 28.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH GUSTS BUT
FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 975
MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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