Question for other Mets...

[PurdueWx80]

Frances' outflow is rapidly expanding to the SW and WSW of the storm...moreso than in any other quadrant. I assume this to be indicative of the reverse eddy/building ridge flow to the west of the storm and just SE and E of the trough in the Rockies. Although she hasn't emerged over the Gulf, that outflow worries me in that it could mean Frances would want to continue west longer than we are anticipating. What do the other mets here think? Any other intelligent conversation is also very welcome. I was looking at another run of a different WRF model that scares the living daylights out of me. It is the ONLY model I've seen that does it, but it still worries me. If that small ridge ends up being stronger than forecast because of her outflow supplying it with extra heat, then Frances will likely stay over the Gulf longer until the trough to the north begins ventilating and then steering her. Any ideas? Am I alone (and crazy) here?

[gravitylover1]

I've been hangin' in the background here for awhile and this got me. I agree with you 100%, been thinking that for two days. The big question then is Mobile or New Orleans/lower delta the next landfall?

[SunnyThoughts]

Purdue, I think your analysis makes perfect sense. Seems reasonable to me the farther west she makes it into the gom after exiting the west coast of Fla... the farther west the 2nd landfall will be.

[Janie34]

Unless she is drawn NW, then N, then NE. A good trough can do that with a tropical system. That may not pan out in this particular situation, but it is possible for Frances to move farther west and still strike Appalachicola.