Accuweather 8 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 5, 2004 8:31 p.m.


FRANCES DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM; APPROACHING TAMPA

As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Sunday evening, Frances was centered near 28.1 north and 82.3 west or 20 miles east of Tampa, Florida. Frances is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph with gusts to 80 mph, and is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph. The center of the storm will move over Tampa this evening and then out into the Gulf of Mexico later tonight. It can strengthen back to hurricane status overnight, and hurricane warnings have been issued along the Gulf coast of Florida. Frances will come ashore again over the Florida panhandle Sunday afternoon. Torrential rainfall will continue over parts of northern and central Florida and spread into the panhandle through Sunday night and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches will be common, and there will be widespread flooding. In addition to the rain, tornadoes are possible over northern and central parts of the state. Winds gusting 60-80 mph will occur near the center of Frances especially in squalls, and gusts past 70 mph can still occur over central and northern parts of the east coast of Florida through much of Sunday night. In fact, there was a gust to 124 mph this morning at Port Canaveral in Brevard County. Daytona Beach had wind gusts to 74 mph twice this afternoon. A storm surge of 3-6 feet can develop over northwestern Florida as the storm approaches, with 1-3 feet over the rest of the west coast of the state.


All warnings for the Bahamas have now been discontinued. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Destin. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from the Suwanne River southward around the Peninsula to Deerfield Beach, and for all of the Keys, including Florida Bay and Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm warnings also remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound.


Looking further into the future, Frances will move up through the Florida panhandle Monday afternoon and night, then north to northwestward into Alabama, then Tennessee. Flooding rains will likely accompany the storm through this region, as will the threat for tornadoes near and east of the center. The winds will diminish, however, as the storm moves northward.

As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Ivan, the 5th hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season, was centered at 10.4 north, 47.7 west, or about 820 miles east-southeast of the Barbados. The storm has been rapidly strengthening today and is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson scale with winds of 135 mph. The storm is moving to the west- northwest at 21 mph and this movement should continue to over the next couple of days. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. By the end of the week, Ivan is expected to be in the north-central Caribbean, and there is some uncertainty in where the storm would track from there.

We're still monitoring two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located at 26 north and 46 west a little more than a thousand miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 28 north and 28 west or 1,150 miles southwest of the Azores. Both features still have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. This shear might relax over both and there is some chance both features could become organized tropical systems within the next day or two.