Whether Ivan will be south of...over...or north of Cuba

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KatDaddy
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Whether Ivan will be south of...over...or north of Cuba

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:54 am

Interesting the TPC is not very sure where Ivan will be at day 5

From the 11AM Disc on Ivan

Late in the forecast
period...the motion of the hurricane will depend on the strength
and positions of a ridge over the extreme southwest Atlantic and a
trough over the east-central United States. It is still to early
to confidently predict whether Ivan will be south of...over...or
north of Cuba around 5 days. The current NHC track forecast is
very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be
noted that the latest FSU superensemble run is to the south of the
official track beyond 3 days.
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#2 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:57 am

It will make a big difference in intensity too. If it hits Hispanola and then moves up Cuba it'll be weaker. If it passes south of Hispanola and then south of Cuba, it'll be much stronger.
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#3 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:58 am

Brent wrote:It will make a big difference in intensity too. If it hits Hispanola and then moves up Cuba it'll be weaker. If it passes south of Hispanola and then south of Cuba, it'll be much stronger.


Agreed, ala Frederick 1979.
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