NHC's track seems probable...

[Windfall]

Even if there is a track into the Carribean around Jamaica, Ivan probably will move more NW and eventually North still threatening Florida. At least that is what it seems like since the end of most of the forecast tracks hint at a more northerly curve near the end of the projected paths. I guess this has to do with Ivan moving along the edge of the massive high pressure system in the Atlantic. This high wil not build from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Ivan will curve NW and North along the outer edge of the high pressure system. Frances is leaving low pressure along the Florida gulf coast too giving more reason for Frances to turn more North, probably away from Texas and Louisianna.Even more, if a system digs into the GOM from the pacific, this trough should steer Ivan towards Florida. Anyone else agree? I'm sorry, but I disagree with Derek Ortt.

[Stormtrack03]

There are many scenerios possible I think, once Recon can go in and see what its doing maybe we can get a better grasp on this. I heard they should be out there by this afternoon.

[MBryant]

The main difference of opinion seems to be whether or not Ivan will be far enough North to be picked up by trough between highs or whether Ivan will head NW, N, or NE just because it doesn't have a high to drive it West.

Is this the primary difference or am I missing something?

[PTPatrick]

It is to early to tell. Right now everybody from Texas to FL should be concerned, but I would think more Lousiana to the FL west Coast. The theory about this diggin trough out west is that it will amplifly the atlantic hig pressure and it will push west,like we saw with Frances. And since Frances is already starting more south. if one were to apply a similiar track to Ivan it would threaten the GOM, not the east coast. I am saying Jamaica, Cuba, grazing the keys and then Grand Isle Louisana to the Panhandle. My concern here in Mississippi is that this thing doesnt look like it will dilly dally like Frances and a faster track through the islands would portend less weakening. We are planning on going ahead and taking care of some things outside today as far as cleanup because we all work this week and wont have time till next saturday. We needed to clean up around the house anyway, LOL

[canegrl04]

On TWC,they said a high curently in place off the SE coast of US will push Ivan into the Carribean.Exacty where he goes after that is up in the air.Seems likely now Florida,or GOM

[PurdueWx80]

I'm inclined to agree w/ Derek. His forecasts for Frances were spot on. Notice the NHC mentioned that the FSU ensemble, which is the track they generally seemed to follow for Frances, is further south of their track. That would indicate a stronger ridge than is currently forecast across the western Atlantic. I also see no reason so far to believe that the upper high won't extend into the Gulf this time. People also thought Frances would go towards the "low pressure" left by Gaston. That certainly didn't happen. The atmosphere recovers a lot fast than people here seem to think. I honestly believe this is a GOM storm and that Ivan will miss most of Hispaniola, but not Cuba.

[weatherFrEaK]

The latest WV loop I'm looking at clearly shows the high steering Ivan to be slipping somewhat to the south and west and helping to keep Ivan on a more westerly track for now.