Wait until tonight 11 PM advisory...

[Windfall]

I am now starting to think everyone, including myself, are getting way too ahead of themselves. The NHC did a decent job with Frances and even Charley was in well in their cone of error. As a result, for now, it is a good idea to pay attention to the NHC's projected path and cone of error. This track is subject to change. However, for the past few days it has been consistent in pointing out that Ivan is a legitimate threat to miami and the keys. It could change though. We all should have a better idea by 11 PM tonight and especially by Wednesday/Thursday. South Floridians should stay stocked up with supplies and storm shutters because if Ivan doesn't threaten, there are two more potential systems behind it. Besides, statistically speaking, I saw on CNN a probability chart outlining the possibility and frequency of landfalling hurricances along the east and gulf coasts. According to CNN, South Florida, statistically, is supposed to encounter hurricanes/tropical storms every 3-5 years. For the past 20 years, putting aside Andrew, Miami has been lucking out incredibly. Be prepared for some possible change...luck will not last forever.

[Burn1]

Try 40 years

[Canelaw99]

And on that note, Steve Lyons on TWC (yes, I know some on this board don't put much stock in him, but...) was commenting yesterday that their cone for Ivan is pretty narrow because the confidence is pretty high in their current track.

Also, I've seen that statistically, S. FL is hit every 3ish years, and we're at least a year overdue from that. While yes, we here in Dade were somewhat affected by Frances, in reality, we haven't been hit by a 'cane besides Andrew in '92 and rainy Irene in '99. I've known our time was coming, and it appears that this year is it.....