i can't believe this

[wzrgirl1]

I can't believe south florida is in the freakin' cone again for Ivan. Sorry for being so blunt but it's enough already. I don't understand why this is happening. Is it because of the persistent highs? Was this forecasted in the beginning of the season? Is this common? Why are these troughs not digging far enough south? Is this just timing and Florida has had bad luck this year? I need some sort of reasoning for this. Thanks for any input.

[Canelaw99]

LOL - I'm with ya! I saw the 5 day last night at 11 and it was right on the edge, so I knew we'd be in it this morning. Just a couple of days to breathe, then the preps. start all over again - *sigh*

[Stephanie]

One of these days I'm going to find the thread where everyone posted what area they thought would be most affected by a landfalling hurricane. The MAJORITY selected Florida. The reasoning was pretty much because they've been out of "the cone" for so long, that it was only a matter of time.

I'm not a meteorologist, so I couldn't even begin to tell you why Florida has a bullseye on her. The storms that have hit her this year have come via the Cape Verde area which they then either head to the GOM or into Florida and the East Coast. Where the last several years have seen multiple hits occuring in the GOM and one or two along the East Coast (Isabel), the weather patterns have definately shifted this year. We are seeing many STRONG cold fronts barreling through the US and making it very far south in the US which is virtually unprecedented. Again, the many excellent pro and amateur meteorologists that we have on this board will be able to get into the technical discussions.

I am truly sorry that Florida is going through all of this.

[Brent]

I'm surprised Florida isn't hit more than they are... they stick out like a sore thumb. I think Eastern Cuba and Hispanola protect them.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

I have read some recent scientific articles on Global Warming. Recently (this past year) has sure seemed to give some credibility to the oncomming effects of Global Warming. I don't know about you but that is a scary thought. Could this recent activity be related to a change in the Global Warming? I for one sure hope not!

[Eyes2theSkies]

If you look back in history, the coast of Florida got shellacked repeatedly in the 20's, 30's and 40's. Ever hear the saying, "what comes around, goes around" Weather patterns don't just change with the seasons, there are long term patterns, too. We have been on a cycle that takes 2-3 generations from start to finish. There's another saying, "how soon we forget" We here in Florida fell into complacency, thinking that it will always turn to NC, only getting the odd flukes now and then (Andrew). People need to recognize that NC is not going to be the bullseye that recent years have shown it to be. Technology regarding these storms has come a LONG way from barometers on fishing boats, meteorologists are going to be able to see more clearly the long-term weather patterns that happen.

[Innotech]

the simple answer is because you live in Floirida. the more complicated answer deals with seasonal synoptics and other headache inducing terms of meteorology and climatology.

[MBryant]

I have read some recent scientific articles on Global Warming. Recently (this past year) has sure seemed to give some credibility to the oncomming effects of Global Warming. I don't know about you but that is a scary thought. Could this recent activity be related to a change in the Global Warming? I for one sure hope not!

Global Warming as currently used is actually warming caused by Human Beings as opposed to Natural Global Warming which is part of a natural cycle which is occuring on cycles of varying length.

We are in the fourth global warming period of the last 50,000 year cycle and some think we should be starting to enter a new ice age.

Don't be overly alarmed by the scientific community which needs a few alarmists to give politicians a reason to FUND their research. It really is all about FUNDING.

Extrapolation of short term trends (which could be hundreds or thousands of years) is unsound as if we simply extrapolated the movement of hurricanes rather than understand steering currents and always expected any growing storm to continue growing indefinately.

[msbee]

we had 2 storms in one year( 10 days apart) in 1995, 2 storms in 1999, 3 weeks apart.
we felt like we were being picked on
when you live in the hurricane belt, you have to be prepared for that.
it sure does suck though!

[hurricanefreak1988]

so I couldn't even begin to tell you why Florida has a bullseye on her.

Florida is a chick?

[canegrl04]

In another post,someone said in 1964,Florida got hit by 3 hurricanes .Although its rare for Florida to be singled out during a hurricane season,it does happen from time to time.

[Ixolib]

so I couldn't even begin to tell you why Florida has a bullseye on her.

Florida is a chick?

Now this could surely spark some lively debate!!

[wxman57]

I have read some recent scientific articles on Global Warming. Recently (this past year) has sure seemed to give some credibility to the oncomming effects of Global Warming. I don't know about you but that is a scary thought. Could this recent activity be related to a change in the Global Warming? I for one sure hope not!

This has nothing to do with global warming. It's just a natural climatic change back to a pattern similar to the 1940s-1960s. Duding a 25-year period from 1944-1969, south Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes, one every 2 years on aveage. During that period, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was in the same phase as it just recently shifted, and the Atltantic SSTs had warmed due to natural changes in ocean currents. So expect several more decades of increased landfalling major hurricanes in Florida.

On a side note, global observations indicate significant global cooling in the past 6-8 months - just as what was experienced during the 1940s-1960s and into the 1970s. Anyone remember the global cooling scares of the 1970s, when the next ice age was just around the corner? Well, look for that next, but this time global cooling will be blamed on global warming. All caused by our cars, undoubtably, even though this has happened for thousands of years.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

what is happening to the gulf stream? What happened to Frances while stalled in the gulf stream is very uncanny. This has rarily happened in the past.

[anjou]

Weather patterns don't just change with the seasons, there are long term patterns, too. We have been on a cycle that takes 2-3 generations from start to finish.

Bump, for this comment. (Let's hope it's just some long Atlantic hurricane cycle and not a longer, "Atlantean" cycle.)

All this is reminding me that those horizontally-growing palm trees I've seen throughout coastal Florida didn't get that way accidentally... they're part of the historical and (probably a misnomer but) 'geologic' record.

[anjou]

so I couldn't even begin to tell you why Florida has a bullseye on her.

Florida is a chick?

Now this could surely spark some lively debate!!

Fla. is a chick, Southern California is a chick (N. Cal. is a hippie of some sort) and NY is most definitely a guy.

[anjou]

So expect several more decades of increased landfalling major hurricanes in Florida.

On a side note, global observations indicate significant global cooling in the past 6-8 months... this time global cooling will be blamed on global warming. All caused by our cars, undoubtably, even though this has happened for thousands of years.

A question and a comment.

Question: If this is the new norm for Florida - that is, if it happens again next year, what if anything do you see happening to the economics/populus of the state?

Comment: Not to weigh in on one side or the other of the global warming debate at this point, just to say... there's some discussion floating around out there about how significantly large volcanic eruptions add to global warming.