Ivan does have his faults

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
clueless newbie
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 pm

#21 Postby clueless newbie » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:00 pm

Looking at the latest high resolution picture at
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

I still think that Ivan's problems with the SW blob will persist a bit longer. I think that this blob is a low-level clockwise circulation center - remnant from the initial disturbance which also spawned Ivan, and maintained by rigorous convection against the Coriolis forces. The low lattitude keeps the Coriolis forces weak anough to not suppress it yet.

If you look carefully at that latest visual, you see that wisps of clouds to the W and NW of the strongest convection of that blob are actually curved the wrong way.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#22 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:01 pm

If it ramps back up to 135 mph before reaching these islands, it will take a lot of people (including myself) by surprise.
0 likes   
Top
btsgmdad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:51 am
Location: Lincoln Park, MI

#23 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:04 pm

I hope for your sake, abajan, that it does not. :)
0 likes   
Top
B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#24 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:10 pm

clueless newbie wrote:Looking at the latest high resolution picture at
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

I still think that Ivan's problems with the SW blob will persist a bit longer. I think that this blob is a low-level clockwise circulation center - remnant from the initial disturbance which also spawned Ivan, and maintained by rigorous convection against the Coriolis forces. The low lattitude keeps the Coriolis forces weak anough to not suppress it yet.

If you look carefully at that latest visual, you see that wisps of clouds to the W and NW of the strongest convection of that blob are actually curved the wrong way.


I think I agree with you. I've seen people comment on his great outflow. Well, it doesn't look so great to me. It's sticking straight out...like a sun burst. That indicates poor circulation to me, and I think the circulation issues might be due to a lack of coreolis effect since the storm is so far south.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#25 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:15 pm

I dont think you have to worry ajaban, the storm seems like itll pass well south of you. You only may get TS force or weak hurricane force winds
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2022 and 369 guests