Ivan...12Z Model Analysis

[MWatkins]

Here are the model runs from today...do what you will with this information but pleae understand that this could all change tonight after the synoptic mission completes.

The UKMET is a left outlier with a track through the Caribbean sea and ner Jamaica in 5 days with a mostly WNW course throughout.

NOGAPS takes the system up the spine of Cuba and just near the FL Straights in 6 days.

The just released 12Z EURO is a little north of NOGAPS with a turn into the eastern Gulf by day 7...very close to SW Florida.

Amazingly...the 12Z GFS cant handle Ivan and carries it as a weak vortex actually not far from the Official track...near 21.5 78 or so in 120 hours. The one thing that is a bit disconcerting about the GFS is taht it continues to suggest a breakdown of the eastern US ridge...partially induced by Frances. This does not seem plausible...but looking at the Euro...timing will become key late in the period.

The 12Z GFDL trends a bit to the south as well but not nearly as far as the UKMET.

The CONU concensus position has shifted south since this morning as well:

2004-0906-18Z, CONU, 120, 22.2N, 80.9W
2004-0906-12Z, CONU, 120, 23.3N, 78.6W

Impact: Look for the TPC track to maybe bend a little to the south...but they will probably wait to make any big changes until the synoptic data goes in tonight.

MW

[ericinmia]

The Euro is getting me worried again... It is becoming very consistant as it was with frances, and we all know how well it performed with her many days out.

It should be interesting to see the models, especially the GFS once the synoptic data is added.
-Eric