FRANCES TRACK

[bobbisboy]

Perhaps it is of no matter at this point but FRANCES is clearly tracking in well east of the NHC predicted path. I am mindful that the NHC likes to make gradual changes but FRANCES hasn't been tracking WNW for a long time now. Given the state of the storm maybe this just means more rain for a different set of people but my larger question is what does it mean about the shape of the Atlantic Ridge and it's implications for IVAN. By the way, I live on a barrier island just south of Charleston and we have been getting pummelled with wind and rain for hours and are under a tornado warning at the moment. So much for missing FRANCES. Any thoughts on the ridge are appreciated.

[bobbisboy]

At 2PM NO mention of a WNW movement for FRANCES any longer. Doesn't this have an implication as pertains to the strength of the ridge?NHC tack for FRANCES will be off about 120 miles to far west.

As for IVAN, wish that plane was getting there 6 hours later.....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 97L.INVEST,

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS CROSSING THE COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST...NEAR ST.
MARKS FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANCES SHOULD MOVE WELL INLAND DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

[Wolfman21]

Frances looks to be moving more North right now to me

[STORMSURGE]

looks due north to me also, going to be a super soaker for alot of people in the coming days!

[bobbisboy]

I guess what I was getting at though was the reason why she is deviating so much from the orginal forecast by the NHC. NHC did a fantistic job with predicting FRANCES'S track until the last bit here. Was the track wrong because of more of a decay in the ridge. If so, this may have an implication for IVAN, depending on the timing of FRANCES'S exit and IVAN'S arrival. This is why I raised the issue.

[Wnghs2007]

Frances has entered a small gap in the ridge and is moving towards the NNW at the moment. But looking at the current heights and pressure trends the ridge to the NNE of Frances is stronger than where it is at now and will help to push it back to a NW course for a little while before a shift back to a more notherly direction. NHC track is fine as of the moment.

[Brent]

I was wondering about that. At this rate, it'll move through Western or even Central Georgia and faster than the track as well. Pull west Frances!!!

[Storminole]

I think Frances has her eye on Tallahassee. Although light rain continues, the wind has slackened abruptly here on the east side of the city. I've never seen my wall barometer lower, just a hair over 29.00 in.

[Wnghs2007]

I think Frances has her eye on Tallahassee. Although light rain continues, the wind has slackened abruptly here on the east side of the city. I've never seen my wall barometer lower, just a hair over 29.00 in.

The center passed right over Tallehassee and now is North West of the City on lastest radar.

[bobbisboy]

Perhaps the strong frong approaching from the west is preventing FRANCES from following the NHC track which by the way was orginally far west of the present track. Even this new track looks too far west so far unless FRANCES hooks left soon. The front looks pretty solid.

[GulfHills]

I think Frances has her eye on Tallahassee. Although light rain continues, the wind has slackened abruptly here on the east side of the city. I've never seen my wall barometer lower, just a hair over 29.00 in.

The center passed right over Tallehassee and now is North West of the City on lastest radar.

I'm in Tallahassee and it's just light rain and the winds aren't bad. I'm glad it went over and east of us. Only lost power for about 30 min. last night.

[Storminole]

Never been in an 'eye' before and glad it's just a mild tropical storm.

The radar image was definitely a keeper--saved as a bitmap for computer wallpaper.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none