Quick Question...
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Stormtrack03
- Category 1
- Posts: 377
- Age: 44
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
- Location: Downingtown, PA
Quick Question...
I was wondering what factors are out there that is making Ivan weaker than we thought earlier.
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Matthew5
For one it bombed so fast that its inner core caved in on its self/Eye wall replacement. Also its forward speed at 23 mph could also have slight factor to keeping this thing from becoming a cat5. The outflow looks perfect. Its upper high is placed in a spot which not to many storms have. I expect cat4 with in the next day or so.
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x-y-no
- Category 5
- Posts: 8359
- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Well, no pro here, but I have some ideas.
First, he had this anomolous blob of convection to the SW for days now. Probably it was able to maintain itself as a distinct feature because of the low lattitude. I think the growth of this feature overnight and this morning disrupted both inflow and outflow on the SW side.
Second, as he approached South Anerica, the upper level winds fron the persistent high there sheared his SW side some. This interaction will continue for a while, but shouldn't by itself suppress all intensification.
Third, the LLC outran the convection it was under last night, disrupting the vertical flow in the center.
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During the course of today, he's started pulling the SW convection into his circulation, and the LLC is not outrunning the convection any more, and as a result his structure is improving, and I think we can expect some intensification tonight.
First, he had this anomolous blob of convection to the SW for days now. Probably it was able to maintain itself as a distinct feature because of the low lattitude. I think the growth of this feature overnight and this morning disrupted both inflow and outflow on the SW side.
Second, as he approached South Anerica, the upper level winds fron the persistent high there sheared his SW side some. This interaction will continue for a while, but shouldn't by itself suppress all intensification.
Third, the LLC outran the convection it was under last night, disrupting the vertical flow in the center.
---
During the course of today, he's started pulling the SW convection into his circulation, and the LLC is not outrunning the convection any more, and as a result his structure is improving, and I think we can expect some intensification tonight.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Two other trains of thought ...
ERC (eyewall replacement cycle ... the original eye was so small that it readily collapsed once it shrunk under 5 NM ...) and second, the rapid intensification was led to an outbreak of convection with frequent lightning (unfortunately, no ground truth ... but the flareup of convection yesterday with very, very deep reds leads me to believe that the rapid intensification process yesterday was enhanced b/c of severe thunderstorm development around the eyewall ... once the eye collapsed, convection returned to a more normal state (without many lightning strikes at all) and a double whammy led to weakening trend (albeit temporary)
Ever since, storms like Opal for example have had intense convection with frequent lightning within the inner core noted by RECON reports, a lot of times there's been rapid intensification processes that have occurred ... and once that trend for that convection weakened also lends credence to the weakening as well (such as with Opal, without an apparent eye on IR SAT)
SF
ERC (eyewall replacement cycle ... the original eye was so small that it readily collapsed once it shrunk under 5 NM ...) and second, the rapid intensification was led to an outbreak of convection with frequent lightning (unfortunately, no ground truth ... but the flareup of convection yesterday with very, very deep reds leads me to believe that the rapid intensification process yesterday was enhanced b/c of severe thunderstorm development around the eyewall ... once the eye collapsed, convection returned to a more normal state (without many lightning strikes at all) and a double whammy led to weakening trend (albeit temporary)
Ever since, storms like Opal for example have had intense convection with frequent lightning within the inner core noted by RECON reports, a lot of times there's been rapid intensification processes that have occurred ... and once that trend for that convection weakened also lends credence to the weakening as well (such as with Opal, without an apparent eye on IR SAT)
SF
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