5pm Frances-45 mph winds

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 52

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004

...Frances expected to dump heavy rains over the southeastern United
States...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been downgraded to
Tropical Storm Warning from the Suwanee river to St. Marks...and
the rest of the warnings for Gulf Coast of Florida have been
discontinued.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located inland near latitude 30.6 north...longitude 84.3 west or
about 75 miles... 120 km...northeast of Apalachicola Florida.

Frances is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. On this
track Frances will continue to move farther inland.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...with higher gusts...
mainly over water. Futher weakening is anticipated.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles south of
the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels should
continue from Tampa Bay northward to the Apalachee Bay. In
addition...large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in
areas of strong onshore flow. Both surge and waves should
gradually begin to decrease.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected over portions of the southeastern United States...
especially along and to the east of the path of Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of north and
central Florida and the Florida Panhandle...and portions of Alabama
and Georgia.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...30.6 N... 84.3 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 52

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004

radar data and surface observations indicate that Frances has been
moving inland. Maximum winds are 40 knots mainly over water or
along the coast. Weakening over land is anticipated.

Frances is expected continue to move on a general northward track...
about 8 to 10 knots...producing very heavy rains along its path.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/2100z 30.6n 84.3w 40 kt...inland
12hr VT 07/0600z 31.5n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 07/1800z 33.0n 85.5w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 08/0600z 34.5n 85.0w 20 kt...inland
48hr VT 08/1800z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...inland
72hr VT 09/1800z 40.5n 80.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 10/1800z...absorbed by a front

[MWatkins]

Thank GOD this thing is finally inland.

MW

[Brent]

Thank GOD this thing is finally inland.

MW

Yep. The 24-hour position is just 15 miles NW of here. Already gotten some rainbands(mostly light) with some gusty winds up to 35-40 mph.

[Skywatch_NC]

Have had some moderate to heavy rain w/ thunder in a band here this afternoon in central NC, also. Just shows how really big Frances is!

Eric