2 PM TWC IVAN TRACK...MORE NORTH

Windfall · #1 Postby **Windfall** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:27 pm

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html

Ivan may have its eye centered on South Florida. Unlike the computer models I've seen in the forum (i.e. euro,GFDL, etc.), the NHC keeps little by little shifting their tracks more towards the Bahamas, especially Andros Island. Even more, Ivan is now moving WNW instead of due west.

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:29 pm

Windfall wrote:http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/projectedpath_large.html

Ivan may have its eye centered on South Florida. Unlike the computer models I've seen in the forum (i.e. euro,GFDL, etc.), the NHC keeps little by little shifting their tracks more towards the Bahamas, especially Andros Island.

Probably b/c they haven't seen the latest 12z guidance ... basically, though, they use the forecast tracks supplied to them by the NHC...

SF

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:29 pm

That is the track from 11:00am EDT. The NHC issues new forecast tracks every 6 hours.

The up to date track will not be out until 5:00pm EDT.

tdess02 · #4 Postby **tdess02** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:40 pm

The track has not shifted more North. I do expect , after looking at the latest models runs, that the NHC will shift the track more South on the 5pm advisory.

#5 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:49 pm

I am beginning to think this may be a Gulf storm...

blizzard20 · #6 Postby **blizzard20** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:19 pm

The track will more Northward i will be online later tonight .

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:23 pm

1) NHC has NOT shifted it's track to the right; the last advisory actually shifted the track a bit LEFT of the previous track, but the final position is further "North" due to forward speed.

2) Motion between the VORTEX fixes for Ivan was only 273 degrees, or BARELY N of due W.

3) I'd bet you all the money in the Universe the NHC track is shifted a bit left at 5PM.

mf_dolphin · #8 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:26 pm

I agree with Derecho. Ivan continues to track south and looks to be getting his act back together.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:27 pm

blizzrad20...you are going to be wrong. No doubt about that.

Based on the mets. posting here, about the current model runs, the NHC without doubt, will shift the forecast path more south.

ilmc172pilot · #10 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:30 pm

I gotta go with a north shift as well

mf_dolphin · #11 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:36 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Ivan track shifted south and west. Just off the northern coast of Cuba in 5 days... end of debate :-)

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:47 pm

Thanksmf_dolphin....but some people just refuse to understand, or just do not want to understand.

They will continue to post nonsense, for whatever their reason.

2 PM TWC IVAN TRACK...MORE NORTH

2 PM TWC IVAN TRACK...MORE NORTH

Re: 2 PM TWC IVAN TRACK...MORE NORTH

this ivan will be in the bahamas as cat 3/4 no gulf

Who is online