Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 18
Statement as of 21:00Z on September 06, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Barbados...St. Lucia...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Martinique.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad and Tobago.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.
Hurricane center located near 11.6n 55.3w at 06/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 19 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 968 mb
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 45ne 0se 0sw 45nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 20se 20sw 75nw.
34 kt.......120ne 50se 50sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 11.6n 55.3w at 06/2100z
at 06/1800z center was located near 11.4n 54.5w
forecast valid 07/0600z 12.3n 58.1w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 0se 0sw 45nw.
50 kt... 75ne 20se 20sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 50se 50sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 07/1800z 13.2n 61.5w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 20se 20sw 45nw.
50 kt... 75ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 75se 75sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 14.0n 64.4w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 45se 30sw 45nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 90sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 15.0n 67.4w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 45ne 45se 30sw 45nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 90sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 17.5n 72.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 100sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 10/1800z 20.0n 76.5w...inland near south coast of Eastern Cuba
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
Outlook valid 11/1800z 23.0n 80.0w...inland on the north coast of Central Cuba due south of Miami
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.6n 55.3w
next advisory at 07/0300z
5pm Ivan-105 mph winds, 968 mb pressure
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Last time I checked 23.0 80.0 is not inland. Good forecast I'm sure but this minor detail seem to get flubbed up in almost every forecast.
MW
MW
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I stand corrected. Going to have to find a new reference map. The one I have has that point 45 miles off shore...but I checked the NHC site and 23/80 IS just inland over Cuba.
Maybe this seems screwed up a lot because I havea map that is not quite to scale...dooh! And the map I use even has the conic projection on it.
Oh well...hope this is my worst screw up for this storm.
MW
Maybe this seems screwed up a lot because I havea map that is not quite to scale...dooh! And the map I use even has the conic projection on it.
Oh well...hope this is my worst screw up for this storm.
MW
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Brent
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Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 06, 2004
...Ivan a little weaker but still dangerous...could restrengthen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Barbados...St. Lucia...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Martinique.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad and Tobago.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 11.6 north...longitude 55.3 west or about 305 miles...
490 km...east-southeast of Barbados.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph ...35
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On this track...the center of the hurricane will be
near or over some of the Windward Islands Tuesday morning.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan has the potential to restrengthen
tonight and early Tuesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...11.6 N... 55.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 06, 2004
...Ivan a little weaker but still dangerous...could restrengthen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Barbados...St. Lucia...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Martinique.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad and Tobago.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 11.6 north...longitude 55.3 west or about 305 miles...
490 km...east-southeast of Barbados.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph ...35
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On this track...the center of the hurricane will be
near or over some of the Windward Islands Tuesday morning.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan has the potential to restrengthen
tonight and early Tuesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...11.6 N... 55.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
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Brent
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Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004
the hurricane hunters found peak flight level...700 mb...winds of 94
kt and 87 kt over the northwest and northeast quadrants
respectively. This supports a current intensity of 90 kt...which is
consistent with the minimum central pressure they measured by
dropsonde...969 mb. The central pressure estimate for this advisory
is slightly lower since the dropsonde showed winds over 20 kt when
it hit the surface...suggesting that it was not in the center of
the eye. Satellite images depict a well-organized hurricane...and
the upper-tropospheric outflow remains impressive. We see no
reason why Ivan could not restrengthen very soon...and this is
reflected in the official forecast.
Initial motion...285/19...is not much different from what it was
earlier today. The hurricane should continue to be steered
west-northwestward by a strong easterly to east-southeasterly
current for the next few days. The dynamical track model
consensus...conu...has been shifting a little to the west
today...so the official forecast is also shifted a little to the
left of the previous one. However...in the 4-5 day time
frame...there is a lot of uncertainty as to how much mid-level
ridging will develop between Frances...or its remnants over the
east-central United States...and Ivan. If a significant weakness
is left in the vicinity of Florida...Ivan could veer toward the
Bahamas near the end of the forecast period. It is simply too
early to be more specific regarding the potential threat to the
United States coast.
Based on the aircraft data...the wind radii have been adjusted to
show a more asymmetric circulation.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/2100z 11.6n 55.3w 90 kt
12hr VT 07/0600z 12.3n 58.1w 100 kt
24hr VT 07/1800z 13.2n 61.5w 105 kt
36hr VT 08/0600z 14.0n 64.4w 110 kt
48hr VT 08/1800z 15.0n 67.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 09/1800z 17.5n 72.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 10/1800z 20.0n 76.5w 80 kt...inland
120hr VT 11/1800z 23.0n 80.0w 75 kt...inland
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004
the hurricane hunters found peak flight level...700 mb...winds of 94
kt and 87 kt over the northwest and northeast quadrants
respectively. This supports a current intensity of 90 kt...which is
consistent with the minimum central pressure they measured by
dropsonde...969 mb. The central pressure estimate for this advisory
is slightly lower since the dropsonde showed winds over 20 kt when
it hit the surface...suggesting that it was not in the center of
the eye. Satellite images depict a well-organized hurricane...and
the upper-tropospheric outflow remains impressive. We see no
reason why Ivan could not restrengthen very soon...and this is
reflected in the official forecast.
Initial motion...285/19...is not much different from what it was
earlier today. The hurricane should continue to be steered
west-northwestward by a strong easterly to east-southeasterly
current for the next few days. The dynamical track model
consensus...conu...has been shifting a little to the west
today...so the official forecast is also shifted a little to the
left of the previous one. However...in the 4-5 day time
frame...there is a lot of uncertainty as to how much mid-level
ridging will develop between Frances...or its remnants over the
east-central United States...and Ivan. If a significant weakness
is left in the vicinity of Florida...Ivan could veer toward the
Bahamas near the end of the forecast period. It is simply too
early to be more specific regarding the potential threat to the
United States coast.
Based on the aircraft data...the wind radii have been adjusted to
show a more asymmetric circulation.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/2100z 11.6n 55.3w 90 kt
12hr VT 07/0600z 12.3n 58.1w 100 kt
24hr VT 07/1800z 13.2n 61.5w 105 kt
36hr VT 08/0600z 14.0n 64.4w 110 kt
48hr VT 08/1800z 15.0n 67.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 09/1800z 17.5n 72.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 10/1800z 20.0n 76.5w 80 kt...inland
120hr VT 11/1800z 23.0n 80.0w 75 kt...inland
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