Stadium type eyewall about to pop out on Ivan?

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Anonymous

Stadium type eyewall about to pop out on Ivan?

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:24 pm

Could it be?

Zoom in twice, to take a closer look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:27 pm

That pic is from early in the morning hours not from this afternoon.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:31 pm

I had the wrong link posted. This one is the most current, but you need to zoom in twice.
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:35 pm

No. He's getting more organized, but not that organized.
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#5 Postby ohiostorm » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:39 pm

Definatley looks like an eye trying to get formed once again. A much bigger then before.
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#6 Postby ColinD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:48 pm

That pressure measurement from the recon was not so impressive.

The latest Dvorak is down.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

I personally think the NHC is overestimating the intensity.
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:54 pm

In my opinion the storm has done a structure change upon encountering a land airmass associated with South America and the Caribbean.

Anyone saying things like "This is a dud" or such is ignorant of cyclones.

If you want to see some bona fide trochoidal wobbles look at the entire core spinning in an inside wobble inside the main storm body.

You are looking at a serious storm just getting its act together.

Time to be strapping down Barbados. Look out!
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#8 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:56 pm

Just looked at the visible once again, there is definitely an eye appearing once again. This storm is strengthening again. Look out abajan and the rest of the islanders down there.
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Matthew5

#9 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:02 pm

Looking at the 85z data last night it showed a eye around 5 nmi in size. This system was alot like Charley with its inner core last night. But with alot larger outflow with a large Cdo. The Inner core shown by todays 85z data shows that it fall apart. But looking at satellite is seems to be reoreganizing again. What else to note is the wind shear is very light no more then 5 mph over this system. Plus what could really give it a chance to bomb out is the outflow is perfect out of all quads. With The upper high over the system. I expect this to bomb back to a cat4 hurricane moving into the Caribbean.
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#10 Postby ColinD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:14 pm

Another recon report. 2 straight at 969 mbs (a few hours apart). Looks to be about 110 or 115 sustained.
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:17 pm

Looks like its wrapping up again, the eye is now visible. Hope it doesnt get too strong before slamming the islands.
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#12 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:44 pm

Made that last post before seeing the weak IR presentation.

Like Frances, some upper winds could be hampering the outflow, OR the SA effect could have gotten it early due to a lowered Atlantic regime...
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#13 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:50 pm

On the visible, the shadow is producing a false eye ... in fact, its an overshooting top casting a shadow ... although, doesn't have a VISIBLE eye, watch the trends to see if a lot of deep convection re-emerges just like yesterday ...
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