NHC NO 5pm Disc./Map For Ivan Yet

[canegrl04]

Why are they dragging their lazy behinds?

[Canelaw99]

I was wondering the same thing....

[air360]

i believe brent has already posted it on here...

[MortisFL]

It's been out for almost 20 min...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html


NHC's site is usually the slowest to update...weird huh?

[Hurricanehink]

Here you are. It's not from NHC, but from http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt4.html
** WTNT44 KNHC 062048 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94
KT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY
DROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN
IT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF
THE EYE. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
CURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST
TODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN. IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS SIMPLY TOO
EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
UNITED STATES COAST.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
SHOW A MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 11.6N 55.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 12.3N 58.1W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 61.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 64.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 15.0N 67.4W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 72.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 20.0N 76.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W 75 KT...INLAND

[Matthew5]

[canegrl04]

Its not up at the noaa site.And the 5pm map has not been posted yet

[Brent]

Its not up at the noaa site.And the 5pm map has not been posted yet

Same thing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Canelaw99]

I know it goes up early on weather underground...just wondering why it takes the NHC so long to update their maps when they have all the other 5pm info. up on the site....

[air360]

the NHC and noaa site always seem to be the LAST ones to update:) weatherunderground.com seems to be pretty good and it is always posted up in here about 15min before the hour anyways

[bwstg]

Here ya go straight from the NHC




000
WTNT44 KNHC 062048
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94
KT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY
DROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN
IT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF
THE EYE. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
CURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST
TODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN. IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS SIMPLY TOO
EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
UNITED STATES COAST.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
SHOW A MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 11.6N 55.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 12.3N 58.1W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 61.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 64.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 15.0N 67.4W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 72.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 20.0N 76.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W 75 KT...INLAND


$$

[Canelaw99]

That's the 11am one...

[air360]

she(they) wanted the 5pm...thanks anyways though!

[scogor]

So exactly why did I just finish putting all of our pool furniture and plants back on our patio and outside our house here in Sarasota? Glutton for punishment?

[air360]

apparently;)...hehe

[Thunder44]

NHC site is always slower than other sites to update. It's shame because they people to visit there site for more info on hurricanes and you can't get an update from the site sooner. I like to look at their graphics because it's better than what they have at weather underground, but they usually are the last to update.

[FORMERWXMAN]

I will be keeping my plywood up until Ivan
is no longer a threat.