Floydbuster's 1st Ivan forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 1
Monday September 6, 2004
Mike "Floydbuster' Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Well, Ivan is a heck of a storm. This may be the most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean islands so far in this 21st century. Right now, Ivan is holding at 125 mph and a dangerous 955 mb. I see no reason other than fluctuations, that Ivan will not intensify.

Ivan is embedded in easterly steering currents and that should be the case for AT THE VERY LEAST 48 hours. The ridge is still in place, and I do not see Ivan moving as far north as the NHC track shows. Therefore, I am forecasting the storm to be approching western Cuba in 5 days time. However... the intensity is the my REAL problem!

Ivan has SOME shear in his way, but not enough really to hurt the intensification process. Now... Ivan has nothing in the way of stopping it from becoming a category 5 hurricane. HOWEVER, since my last forecast took Frances up to category 5 status (WHICH MAY HAVE HAPPENED...THANK GOD FOR DRY AIR AND SHEAR) some people may say "FLOYDBUSTER THINKS EVERY STORM WILL BE A CATEGORY 5". Is it my fault this is a hell of a season, and that the first two storms I do forecasts on have category 5 potential? However, FOR NOW, I will bring Ivan up to 135kt until the 5 day period.

NOTE: IVAN WILL BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SO FAR THIS CENTURY AND ALSO MAY BE ONE OF THE WORST IN MANY DECADES.

12 HRS-- 12.0N-- 57.0W-- 115 kt
24 HRS-- 13.0N-- 59.8W-- 125 kt
36 HRS-- 14.0N-- 63.8W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 15.2N-- 67.8W-- 130 kt
72 HRS-- 16.5N-- 73.0W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 18.0N-- 76.3W-- 135 kt
120 HRS- 20.2N-- 80.5W-- 135 kt

[Lebowsky]

Thank you for your thoughts, I just pray it doesn't hit Florida, we've had enough.

[Stormtrack03]

That's a dramatic forecast lol. I'm not 100% sure it will hold up but only time will tell.

[MortisFL]

good forecast...lets see what recon finds later today.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

Although a very scary thought, this may be the BIG ONE that actually gets into the GOM and tracks straight into Tampa Bay. I hope my premonitions are way off! Hoping for the best. Florida doesn't deserve the rath it has suffered thus far. Hopefully, at worst, this will cross a sparcely populated area of the mountainous area of Hispaniola and choke out before affecting the lives of many in its track.

[Anonymous]

I should have another forecast at 5pm with recon stuff included.

[btsgmdad]

The west coast of Florida does not want to see any forecasted tracks that resemble Charley!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Your track seems very reasonable to me.

[Anonymous]

I thought it seemed right.

[ColinD]

FLOYDBUSTER THINKS EVERY STORM WILL BE A CATEGORY 5!

j/k

[TropicalJen]

Although a very scary thought, this may be the BIG ONE that actually gets into the GOM and tracks straight into Tampa Bay. I hope my premonitions are way off! Hoping for the best. Florida doesn't deserve the rath it has suffered thus far. Hopefully, at worst, this will cross a sparcely populated area of the mountainous area of Hispaniola and choke out before affecting the lives of many in its track.

so, If I stand out on the beach maybe I can WISH it fizzle in the gulf.... just as with frances there are eeery coincidences with this storm, the fact that landfall (albeit not in fla) is projected for 9/11 doesn't set well either....frankly I want my 4th grader to have one week of school that isn't interrupted by the "threat' of a hurricane...I'm afraid the bubble arround tampabay has to burst sometime, just hope its not now!