Greenville Spartinburg Worried. Brought to you By Hky-Wx

[Wnghs2007]

HKY_WX Says FROM WRIGHT-WEATHER BOARDS:

Since eta does well with oragraphic lift, checkout this loop. This is probably one of the most consistent upslope signatures i have seen on the ETA. Massive problems coming for western NC/SC/N GA...

Checkout the loop below! **More latra, oK..;**



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...06_s_loop.shtml

KGSP 061942


AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LOOKS LIKE A BUSY COUPLE OF DAYS AS HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WL AFFECT THE CWA AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES TRUNDLE JUST
WEST OF...OR ALONG...THE APPALACHIANS.

FRANCES IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ATTM. QUITE
A BIT OF SHRA ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS PCPN IS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ORIENTED E TO W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA ATTM. HGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROF ARE
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AS THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BECOME SATURATED THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER BY LATER TNGT.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WL BE FLOODING. THE ETA CONTINUES TO HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF TROUBLE WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE GFS VERY CLOSELY THIS PACKAGE. AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN
BECOMES SATURATED...GFS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES. THE MODEL
HAS LLVL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER FOR UP TO
48 HOURS. A TROPICAL AIRMASS REQUIRES RELATIVELY LITTLE FORCING TO
INITIATE DEEP VERTICAL MOTIONS...AND SUSPECT THAT INCREASING UPSLOPE
WL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN BEGINNING TNGT OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN ESCARPMENT...WELL TO THE N OF THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES. THEREFORE WL POST
A FLOOD WATCH VALID TNGT THROUGH WED.

WL USE HPC/S QPF NUMBERS FOR THE WATCH...BUT AM WORRIED THAT EVEN
THE PIEDMONT ZONES COULD SEE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS CONSIDERING HOW MUCH
PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE E SIDE OF FRANCES FOR MUCH OF IT/S EXISTENCE.
IN LOOKING AT PAST TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
FRANCES OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS...WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED. THIS WOULD OF COURSE RESULT IN
VERY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE RECENT TREND OF A MOTION MORE NORTH
THAN WEST WITH FRANCES IS A LITTLE DISCONCERTING...THOUGH 3 HR
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A NW MOTION. LET/S
HOPE THAT PANS OUT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
THE NE QUAD OF THE STORM COMES CLOSER. GFS 0-3 SREH INCREASES TO
OVER 150 ALONG AND W OF A LINE FROM GRD TO GSP TO AVL MUCH OF TMRW.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CIRCULATION AT 925 AND 850 MB
VERIFY EVEN STRONGER THAN PROGGED BY THE GFS...AND AS WE HEAT UP
TMRW...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WL SEE A FEW TORNADOES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH GRADIENT WINDS IN THE MTNS...
PARTICULARLY IF THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED. EVEN 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD
START TO BRING DOWN A LOT OF TREES. WL ADDRESS BOTH OF THESE CONCERNS
IN AN SPS...BUT DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM.

THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN THE TPC TRACK. HOWEVER...WL
FOLLOW THE TPC TIMING...WHICH MEANS THAT HEAVY PCPN WL COME TO AN
END LATE WED AFTN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THEN THIS COULD BE DELAYED.

AFTER FRANCES MOVES BY WED NGHT...SFC BNDRY WL HANG UP OVER THE
REGION ON THU...AND WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD IN THE WAKE OF FRANCES ON FRIDAY AND THEN A NORTHEAST
RIDGE SLOWLY BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS START
OUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP DRY AIR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY
RETURN STARTING WITH THE SRN TIER UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND THEN SPREADING CHC POPS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. HURRICANE IVAN
COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE OFF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES ARE ALREADY CAUSING DETEORIATION TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR WITH OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL COME UP QUICKLY AS WELL...WITH KAND TO
GSP EXPERIENCING THE WINDY CONDITIONS FIRST...AND THEN TRANSITIONING
TO HKY TO CLT LATE. AVL COULD REMAIN SHELTERED IN THE FRENCH BROAD
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION GETS CLOSER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
082 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...BPM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HG

[/quote]

[Skywatch_NC]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...06_s_loop.shtml doesn't work

Not Found
The requested URL /pmb/nw...06_s_loop.shtml was not found on this server.

Eric

[Wnghs2007]

Here is the real link. And HKY is a person folks. Yall probally know him. I think. But this is his and all credit goes to him.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Dan]

Here is the real link. And HKY is a person folks. Yall probally know him. I think. But this is his and all credit goes to him.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Hey everyone, ya'll probably also know me if you visit the Wright-Weather boards often. I'm about 40 minutes west of HKY banked right against the mountains, looks like a major flood event on the way, probably the biggest in almost 30 years.