Ivan exploding. Forward speed slowing slightly.

calidoug · #1 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:16 pm

Check out the visible floater loop. (Under GOES-E)

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Central convection really blowing up in the last few frames.

calidoug · #2 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:22 pm

Also, looks better for barbados... track has been about 275... looks like it may miss them to the south unless the track changes soon.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:23 pm

Yep Barbados will be spared it seems. Great news for them.

B-Bear · #4 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:26 pm

He looks to have finally absorbed that blob of energy to his southwest. He should get his act together now I would think.

ColinD · #5 Postby **ColinD** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:26 pm

"Exploding" since when? I see some organizational changes that would indicate some strengthening but overall the trend has been down recently.

Looks like the "eye" isn't very warm and the Dvorak numbers - at last estimate anyway - are at their lowest in 30 hours.

Plenty of factors in favor of future strengthening but these "Ivan is strengthening" posts have been going on all day and recon came back with the opposite.

canegrl04 · #6 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:26 pm

The trend is shifting south.This is not good news for GOM or FLorida

#7 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:32 pm

Houstoner wrote:Yep Barbados will be spared it seems. Great news for them.

Yippee!

(Just to be on the safe side, I'll still keep in preparation mode until the all clear is given)

#8 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:35 pm

Too bad it was too far out Sunday for the recon. It would be VERY interesting to see what strength it was then with some good data to back it up.

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:35 pm

Ivan is a large storm with a small central core. If the more southerly trend continues and the core does not expand then Barbados appears to be out of the core of the storm but not the storm itself. Good idea not to let down your guard at all. You are in warnings so anything is still possible.

deguy50 · #10 Postby **deguy50** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:39 pm

URNT12 KNHC 062058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/2058Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
55 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2790 M
D. 80 KT
E. 045 DEG 9 NM
F. 140 DEG 106 KT
G. 045 DEG 006 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3088 M
J. 17 C/ 3075 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 106 KT NE QUAD 2056Z

calidoug · #11 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:39 pm

You need to understand a few things:

The NHC reports may have been trending down, but Ivan itself has clearly been strengthening today from a very disorganized state early this morning.

Recon may have missed the exact center, as the NHC mentions.

The NHC probably significantly *overestimated* the strength from 2AM this morning on.

So the apparent trend (in NHC reporting) appears not to match up with the satellite organizational trend.

Watch from say, 1815Z to 2045Z on the visible, IR and WV loops.

That's not a weakening storm.

#12 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:40 pm

Also, it would be better for Barbados if the storm passed on the north (bad for the other islands). If I remember correctly the NE quadrant is the strongest.

Lynn

Aquawind · #13 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:41 pm

Well Said vbhoutex!! Could bomb again..already has once..

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:41 pm

Pressure drop and wind increase in the last vortex, folks this is strengthening.

Matthew5 · #15 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:43 pm

The inner core is reoreganizing. The eye is 8 nmi wide. That is almost as small as Charleys which was 5 nmi wide. So it has a very small in powerful central core. Pressure is also down from 969 to 964 millibars. Which is 5 millibars! Max flight level winds up to 106 knots. Which the recon could of still missed the core of the winds with this small of a system.

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:47 pm

deguy50 wrote:URNT12 KNHC 062058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/2058Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
55 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2790 M
D. 80 KT
E. 045 DEG 9 NM
F. 140 DEG 106 KT
G. 045 DEG 006 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3088 M
J. 17 C/ 3075 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 106 KT NE QUAD 2056Z

Pressure down 5 mb. Cat 3 before it reaches the islands... :eek:

ColinD · #17 Postby **ColinD** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:49 pm

calidoug wrote:You need to understand a few things:

The NHC reports may have been trending down, but Ivan itself has clearly been strengthening today from a very disorganized state early this morning.

Recon may have missed the exact center, as the NHC mentions.

The NHC probably significantly *overestimated* the strength from 2AM this morning on.

So the apparent trend (in NHC reporting) appears not to match up with the satellite organizational trend.

Watch from say, 1815Z to 2045Z on the visible, IR and WV loops.

That's not a weakening storm.

Well, I'm a believer after the latest recon data. ;-)

And yes, the NHC was overestimating today. I posted the same thing earlier.

Ivan exploding. Forward speed slowing slightly.

Ivan exploding. Forward speed slowing slightly.

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