Let's not start this again....IMPORTANT REMINDER TO ALL!!!!!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

We should have learned with Frances, but apparently some still haven't and I would just like to stop it before it gets worse.

Forecasts.....computer models, amateur, professional, or NHC are VERY INACCURATE past 3 days. Ivan could go into the Gulf of Mexico.....Ivan could go E of FL.....Ivan could hit the Yucatan/Belize......or Ivan could hit FL. It is just too far out to know right now. I'm not saying don't make the forecasts....that's fine. I'm saying do not make comments like "This is absolutely not going to FL......absolutely not getting into the Gulf of Mexico"....because as we learned from Frances, people who said things like that were often quite wrong....and not to mention it leads to a false sense of security to the people on these boards who come here for valuable information.....but instead are misled.

Please think twice before posting your forecasts/comments on the boards and make sure you are not misleading people into thinking they will be safe. Thanks!

[MWatkins]

We should have learned with Frances, but apparently some still haven't and I would just like to stop it before it gets worse.

Forecasts.....computer models, amateur, professional, or NHC are VERY INACCURATE past 3 days. Ivan could go into the Gulf of Mexico.....Ivan could go E of FL.....Ivan could hit the Yucatan/Belize......or Ivan could hit FL. It is just too far out to know right now. I'm not saying don't make the forecasts....that's fine. I'm saying do not make comments like "This is absolutely not going to FL......absolutely not getting into the Gulf of Mexico"....because as we learned from Frances, people who said things like that were often quite wrong....and not to mention it leads to a false sense of security to the people on these boards who come here for valuable information.....but instead are misled.

Please think twice before posting your forecasts/comments on the boards and make sure you are not misleading people into thinking they will be safe. Thanks!

Excellent point. The models are trending south today...which is good news...but we do have recon and a synoptic mission tonight to sample the environment. The models will likely change some again tonight.

MW

[Stormsfury]

Great post, DoctorHurricane ...

With Ivan's continued vigorous pace to the west @ 22 mph, IMHO, a less sharp of a poleward motion seems more plausible at this juncture ...

SF

[Lebowsky]

I need a break from figuring out where the hurricane is going to go anyway. I'll take a couple of days of not caring.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I need a break from figuring out where the hurricane is going to go anyway. I'll take a couple of days of not caring.

i feel the same way...lol..

[Opal storm]

I think everyone needs a break

[crazycajuncane]

Maybe Ivan will fall apart? Who really knows?

[weatherwoman]

i dont see where the models have turned it south at all they are more up east of florida than yesterday it could turn on up the coast toward sc/nc maybe

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Wow Sirocco, thanks for twisting everything I just said. Please reread the following quote:

I'm not saying don't make the forecasts....that's fine. I'm saying do not make comments like "This is absolutely not going to FL......absolutely not getting into the Gulf of Mexico"....because as we learned from Frances, people who said things like that were often quite wrong....and not to mention it leads to a false sense of security to the people on these boards who come here for valuable information.....but instead are misled.

Do you understand it more now?

[banshee]

I have to ask this question as I've seen these comments posted many times here over the past few weeks. Do people truely believe after reading forecasts here that what's posted is gospel? Do they believe when a hurricane has developed and is over a week away if the NHC says there is a probability of it hitting Fl or NC or SC or GA that its gospel? I ask because after living in numerous places along the east coast from Miami to Central NC, I have never taken any forcast as gospel until the beast hits land. Being in NC most of my life we have always been prepared for any type of storm to hit, whether it be an ice storm, such as the 2 we had last winter, or hurricane which we expect every summer. I'm a bit surprised, I suppose, that many people are either not prepared for a storm or believe every forcast put out.

[canegrl04]

All we can do right now is speculate,and just give our best guesses as to where we think it will go.

[TLHR]

I have asked on more than one occassion for the Moderators of this MB to lock down the frivilous and repetitive threads, but to no avail....

Looks like 10 pages of Ivan posts coming our way.

[MGC]

Doctorhurricane, you are missing the point of this forum. It is not for the official dissemination of weather related information. It is for the official dissemination of amature unoffical weather related information. Hey, I love S2K but realize everything I read may not be correct. Read the disclaimer......MGC

[air360]

i agree with MGC....sure there are alot of crazy forecasts on here....and there are some heated discussions on here as well...but if you took all of those out and left on "factual" stuff that was for sure....there would be hardly anything on here....the guesswork and just excitment of not knowing and wondering what one of these massive storms will do days into the future is what makes hurricane tracking so "fun"...at least for amatures like most of us here....we are all just trying to learn from each other and understand this awesome force of nature....so everyone just relax..have fun...and take everything you read with a grain of salt:)
-Air360

[alicia-w]

Excellent point. The models are trending south today...which is good news...but we do have recon and a synoptic mission tonight to sample the environment. The models will likely change some again tonight.

MW

Good news for who?