Ivan And Frances' Atlantic Wake? Answers Please

[tropicstorm]

Assuming the NHC Ivan 5 day forecast verifies with the hurricane riding up the Atlantic ridge & placing Ivan off the SE Florida coast, what are the influences of the upwelled & cooled waters from Frances' wake? Is this negligible or are these waters cooled off enough to weaken another approacing hurricane 7 days later or perhaps inhibiting intensification? I know some folks here think Ivan will track more to the left but, with the assumption for a moment that Ivan could conceivably find it's way into the Atlantic wake of Frances, what would be the effects of any upwelling or cooled waters?

[Brent]

According to the maps I've seen, the waters are still in the mid 80's off the Florida coast despite Frances.

[PTPatrick]

well, it doesnt look like Ivan will track through much of Frances cooled waters. looks like if it didnt go to the GOM it would be extreme SE FL or the keys and that water was not touched by frances...no matter how you slice it though, Ivan will be weakened from land if and when it hits S Fl or the keys...

[ericinmia]

Frances would have had to stall in waters that aren't as easily warmed as the gulfstream waters are. She was not intensifying enough to really cool the waters of any anyhow. It is an older and overplayed idea that upwelling occurs frequently, because it simply doesn't.

-Eric

[inotherwords]

Our local met says the GOM off sw FL is now at 81 degrees. Still over 80 and it can warm up between now and when Ivan gets here.