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Stormsfury wrote:MIA_canetrakker wrote:It will trend back-n-forth for the next week
Well, as long Ivan continues ripping westward at 20+ MPH, I don't see any reason that the model guidance won't continue to shift westward ... only until this thing slows down some, will we start to see an oscillation of the guidance ... IMHO ...
SF
This statement out of the NHC 5 PM discussion leaves me to believe that a movment north is possible near the end of the forecast period.
"IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD."
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- Stormsfury
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MIA_canetrakker wrote:Stormsfury wrote:MIA_canetrakker wrote:It will trend back-n-forth for the next week
Well, as long Ivan continues ripping westward at 20+ MPH, I don't see any reason that the model guidance won't continue to shift westward ... only until this thing slows down some, will we start to see an oscillation of the guidance ... IMHO ...
SF
This statement out of the NHC 5 PM discussion leaves me to believe that a movment north is possible near the end of the forecast period.
"IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD."
The weakness would be left in the wake of Frances carving out quite a trough ... however, IF Ivan continues to at this steadfast clip, the trough will establish too late and Ivan will easily glide right under that trough ...
and would also serve to prevent much poleward motion through the Caribbean ...
Right now, it's all about TRENDS ... still plenty of time to watch ...
SF
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