Ivan to near S Fl/Keys than landfall New Orleans E...

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Vortex
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Ivan to near S Fl/Keys than landfall New Orleans E...

#1 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:41 pm

Looking at the synoptic set-up over the next 3-5 days it appears quite likely that Ivan will cross extreme western Haiti/E Cuba and either pass near or over South Florida/Keys. At this point there should be a decent SW flow over the west/central Gulf as part of the weakness left behind by Frances which will induce a more NW motion towards the Central/E Gulf Coast beyone 4-5 days. The point is southern florda/keys and then the Gulf coast are likely to be impacted by Ivan. The good new for Florida is it will be in a weakened state due to land interaction. However, this will not be the case for the gulf coast. This storm is heading for the GOM the only question is will it pass over southern florida or stay just south and will final landfall be New Orleans or Pensacola....
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#2 Postby LaBreeze » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:44 pm

Could it possibly be a landfall west of New Orleans or east of Pensacola as well?
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#3 Postby BigO » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:48 pm

This is exactly what I am afraid of. I figure this time next week I'll be boarded up and evacuated waiting to see if NOLA will survive.
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#4 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:51 pm

BigO wrote:This is exactly what I am afraid of. I figure this time next week I'll be boarded up and evacuated waiting to see if NOLA will survive.

Don't think that way!! :eek: :eek:
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#5 Postby cape_escape » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:02 pm

Could it be a Tampa storm? If it is guessed in at Tampa, this could be a big one...How's that old saying go? "The third ones the charm"? I hope not!!!
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#6 Postby Lebowsky » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:05 pm

No it can't be a Tampa storm because a universe so unrelentingly cruel could not exist.
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#7 Postby Aquawind » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:09 pm

:talk to the hand:

LALALALAAAAAA


:lol:
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:16 pm

12z ECMWF is a Florida West Coast NIGHTMARE ... Day 7 position very near Key West, FL ... and on the 3 day averages ... Ivan landfalls OVER where FRANCES is currently at right about now ...

NOW, this is quite a shift WEST from the 0z ECMWF in which depicted Ivan barreling headlong into South Carolina this morning ... we're talking about 300 miles WEST ...

The key here is ... not the actual depictions ... but the TRENDS ... everything is generally trending WESTWARD ...
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#9 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:28 pm

im looking for a cat 5 going through miami and then onto new orleans.


:roll:
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#10 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:37 pm

Come now, dennis, that's about as likely as your Frances "Carolina" predictions.
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#11 Postby Stephanie » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:46 pm

No that it looks like Ivan may pay a visit to S. America, what do you think that possibilities are that he'll make it in one piece up into the Gulf?
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#12 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:47 pm

If anything is pointing to New Orleans at this point, then we won't get it....nothing is right this far out! :lol:
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#13 Postby ~SirCane » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:52 pm

I don't know-but I'm worried about this one! Ivan has trouble written all over him.
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