forcast models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
BUD
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:01 am
Location: N.M.B :SC

forcast models

#1 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:15 pm

based on the models does know if any of them are that accurate
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:16 pm

GFDL IMHO....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

Re: forcast models

#3 Postby greeng13 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

BUD wrote:based on the models does know if any of them are that accurate


i'm a newbie...from what most are saying it seems as though the NHC (as a combination of models) has been pretty good this year...some mentioned one or two models sticking out (i'm not sure which ones)...and 95% i think will agree that there is a lot of water between the U.S. and Ivan
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#4 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

The EURO does a fairly good job
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38265
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#5 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:GFDL IMHO....


The GFDL took Frances into the Carolinas until it was blatantly obvious it wasn't going there. :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
BUD
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:01 am
Location: N.M.B :SC

#6 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:19 pm

when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#7 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:20 pm

Brent wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:GFDL IMHO....


The GFDL took Frances into the Carolinas until it was blatantly obvious it wasn't going there. :lol:


OH SORRY ...i forgot you were always right...excuse me....please disregard my post....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

#8 Postby greeng13 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:20 pm

BUD wrote:when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc


i think they were...but some had it following and making landfall right where frances did
0 likes   
Top
CL
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:44 pm

#9 Postby CL » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:30 pm

Is there a link for the EURO?..Anyone seen their latest for IVAN? Thanks
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
rjgator
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 160
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 9:03 pm
Location: Parkland, Florida

Euro Link

#10 Postby rjgator » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:36 pm

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082800!!/[url][url]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/char
ts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004082800!!/[/url][/url]
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#11 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:36 pm

BUD wrote:when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc


Do not assume what comes after the forecast track.
0 likes   
Top
weatherfsu
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 3:45 pm

#12 Postby weatherfsu » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:40 pm

From what I have seen, the models all have their flaws. The FSU SuperEnsemble is very accurate, but it is not available to the public. Basically it takes several models, removes biases from them, crunches them together, and comes up with a result.

You will hear the NHC referencing this a lot, and tayloring their forecasts after it...even if a lot of the individual models don't agree.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#13 Postby Aquawind » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:41 pm

I wish NHC wrote a model analysis of each storm as it progressed for the 3 and 5 day forecasts..Then after landfall a complete model analysis..even if it was only in statistical terms..I would enjoy hearing about the individual forecast analysis at 24 hour incriments up to 5 days and then a general overview..at least providing the statistical data for a public format would provide for some interesting debate..I know the data is available..I am talkin about something highly available and in a consistant format breakdown..some overview verbage would be accepted as well..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#14 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:18 pm

The GFDL is horrid past 72 hours ...

EURO (ECMWF) is by far, the best MR model out there ... time and time again, verification scores consistently rank #1 ... precautionary note (NEVER use the ECMWF in the SR inside of Day 3) ...

One link for the ECMWF model (Plymouth Make your own Maps)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BUD
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:01 am
Location: N.M.B :SC

#15 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:00 pm

some of the updated models from 8pm were pointing ivan to the gom i saw them on a website called weather underground current iam not sure how accurate it is or if it is to early to tell for sure. just one website
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weatherwoman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 364
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 9:09 pm
Location: Newport North Carolina
Contact:
Contact weatherwoman

#16 Postby weatherwoman » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:05 pm

joe bastardi was bringing it into the carolina too up almost until land fall. i do like to listen to him, he is a smart man.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, hurricanes1234 and 270 guests