5AM NHC Discussion

[B-Bear]

Okay, someone answer my previous question. I want to make sure I understood the advisory correctly.

[MWatkins]

Let me make sure I understand this advisory correctly--

NHC has brought its track back to the east now, tracking Ivan across central rather than western Cuba?

And by my coordintates, the 120 day forecast point of landfall is plotted out to central Cuba--that is the landfall point they reference, correct?

Point 1 is correct...the trak now...unfortunately avoids the ragged terrain of eastrn Cuba and now brings Ivan over the relatively flat topography of central Cuba.

The 120 day forecast point is actually the point Ivan will exit Cuba on the north coast. It will make landfall on this track between the 96 and 120 hour points.

Because of your first point...less weakening is forecast due to less time over land and a flatter pass over Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1008W5.gif

MW

[B-Bear]

Yep. That's what I thought.

Thanks, Mike.