If Ivan is moving west tomorrow

[Stormcenter]

If Ivan is still primarily moving westward tomorrow
I don't think this will be a Florida event for sure.
It's pretty obvious the NHC has Ivan moving wnw pretty
soon on their projected path. It looks to me like the
models are missing something that is causing them to ignore
Ivan's quick mostly westward motion and insist on a northward
turn. IMO

[LaBreeze]

What about the expected high in the GOM and the weakness to the east?

[PTPatrick]

I dont freakin get it...the models have been missing something FOR DAYS now. I mean really, if you put any stock in them 3 days ago the northern islands and puerto rico would have been pounded...meanwhile, the southern islands got it instead. Pretty big margin of error if you ask me. Lets put it in perspective...That is like forecasting a daytona beach hit 3 days out and the storm being over key west on day 3. And if you look at the current forecasts, they all have him more WNW now...wrong answer...still moving west, so their tracks are already somewhat in the toilet and will likely be shifted westward, despite the overwhelming model shift to back to SFL today. I must say, I am putting no stock in any forecasts, models or official NHC, or otherwise, until this thing gets on somebody's forecasted track.

[ROCK]

I dont freakin get it...the models have been missing something FOR DAYS now. I mean really, if you put any stock in them 3 days ago the Windward islands would have been gettins pounded...meanwhile, the southern islands got it instead. Pretty big margin of error if you ask me. Lets put it in perspective...That is like forecasting a daytona beach hit 3 days out and the storm being over key west on day 3. And if you look at the current forecasts, they all have him more WNW now...wrong answer...still moving west, so their tracks are already somewhat in the toilet and will likely be shifted westward, despite the overwhelming model shift to back to SFL today. I must say, I am putting no stock in any forecasts, models or official NHC, or otherwise, until this thing gets on somebody's forecasted track.

you and me both.....

[caneseddy]

One of the local mets down here for one of the Spanish stations also mentioned that he believes the models are missing something because the position the hurricane is now is about 150 miles south of where NHC had it yesterday

He also mentioned the climatology and how no hurricane that has formed that far south has hit Florida directly and also that for the storm to follow the NHC path it would have to make the WNW turn pretty quickly because of the rapid forward speed; right now he is inclined to believe the southern track into GOM

[air360]

..only time will tell....doesnt the anticiaption just about kill you!

[NateFLA]

He also mentioned the climatology and how no hurricane that has formed that far south has hit Florida directly

Now, not to wish it here, but what about charley? Charley started reaaal south down there and hit FL directly and that was this year! It's not impossible, but I agree, the models are missing something.

[PTPatrick]

I wont say it wont happen...my gut is Louisiana to the panhandle gets it after Cuba...but I have serious doubts that he wont get sucked into south america or central america. No cat 4 that far south has ever made to FL or the GULF according to wunderground.

[air360]

yes but as was said in another post about the historical tracks...this season has already been a season of records....who knows...it could challenge history and go right up the center of the historical tracks:)

[vbhoutex]

IMO, if Ivan is still on the more southerly course tomorrow, not moving SW, but still very close to W he will more than likely not be a Florida threat, at least not the Peninsula area. Ivan is now a CAT4 hurricane and is heading towards very hot water in the Western/Nwestern Caribbean which should help him maintain this strength or even strengthen more, possibly to a CAT5 storm for at least a while. At the strength he is at he could be helping to enhance the ridge to his North(I haven't looked at sat pics to check this out yet). If this is happening, then it becomes less likely that the current somewhat sharp NW turn will materialize, at least until later, which could put Ivan in the Yucatan Channel or evern further South and West in 4 days.

The possible enhancement of the existing ridge to the North of Ivan(the Bermuda High) may be what the models are missing. It seems to me that this type of enhancement is not usually handled well by the models, but that is JMHO. I will stand corrected if some of the pro-mets know that this answer is wrong.

[caneseddy]

Now, not to wish it here, but what about charley? Charley started reaaal south down there and hit FL directly and that was this year! It's not impossible, but I agree, the models are missing something

Sorry, I misunderstood what he said...he meant in September at this time of the year, not any month during hurricane season

The models are missing something

#1. Haiti, western Cuba, southern Bahamas, SE Florida
#2. Hispaniola, over Cuba, into GOM
#3. Missing all the islands and shooting straight into the Yucatan Channel and into the GOM
#4. Over Jamaica and extreme western Cuba just SW of Key West ala Charley

[frederic79]

One thing to remember is this: In September 1998, projections for Georges began showing the hurricane winding up just EAST of Florida. As time passed, the track shifted west, showing Georges going up the Florida penninsula, then west of Florida, then around the Panhandle, then the MS/AL coast, then NO. It ended up in MS but the point is, the strength of the ridge and how far is builds westward is impossible to determine THIS FAR OUT, even by experts. One constant seems to be... whereever they say NOW it will end up will be too far one way or the other 5 days from now.

[Stormcenter]

He also mentioned the climatology and how no hurricane that has formed that far south has hit Florida directly

Now, not to wish it here, but what about charley? Charley started reaaal south down there and hit FL directly and that was this year! It's not impossible, but I agree, the models are missing something.

You cannot compare Charly to Ivan. Charly was not that far south that far west into the Carribean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html