00z GFS... wha??

[ALhurricane]

I am going to go ahead and say this... I think the 00z GFS is on crack again. For me, this seems like Frances dejavu. I just cannot see this hurricane making that sharp of a northwest and north turn. The new GFS now has this missing the United States completely. I would certainly love for that to happen, but the meteorological side of me does not buy it at this point.

I can see the weakness in the ridge caused by the central US trough that swings east, but I do not believe it does it to the degree to be able to turn this powerful hurricane sharply to the north.

The GFS has been anything but consistent, so I once again am not putting much stock in tonight's run.

Comments always welcomed.

[WeatherNLU]

I have to agree AL..........the GFS and it's sicko sidekick the GFDL have been out to lunch for a couple of weeks now.

[TS Zack]

If I was the NHC I wouldn't know what to do. All models will follow the GFS they are in a bind. I know their meteorological experience tells them that is close to impossible. I shouldn't say impossible when refering to WEATHER.

[Lockhart]

For once I hope the "on crack" model is right. Although I find it hard to believe it will happen, it sure would be great to see Ivan go into the middle of the North Atlantic.

[Greg]

I checked it out too.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

Where do they get the data to plug in to the computer, from locations that are in the middle of the ocean, and countries that do not exchange information? The data from the US, islands, bouys, etc must make up some of the data, but is the rest of it just made up? Surely a satellite can't deliver barometric pressure readings.

[PurdueWx80]

The new GFS now has this missing the United States completely.
Comments always welcomed.

Oh no it doesn't. LOL. It sits out in the Atlantic for days and retrogrades into the Mid-Atlantic. LOL!!!

[MWatkins]

On team speak tonight...craig and I were looking at the most recent wv loop...we have...in no paticluar order...

1. Frances nosing the ridge...

2. The system at 30/55 developing convection

3. A tutt low in front of the hurricane.

I don't feel any better that the hurricane will make the central gulf...and in some ways I can see where the GFS is coming from...although maybe not that far east.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

We'll see...the pattern looks a bit compliated to me...but perhaps the GFS is on to something.

MW

[WeatherNLU]

A 252 hour forecast is so idiotic. The 384 is just plain stupid. Whoever is in charge of the GFS should just stop making it public. All it does is incite panic. The margin of error is from Virginia to London.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

yes, the GFS is far fetched. then again if you look at the ensemble grids there is a giant spread in thinking between each individual run. so clearly any model track beyond 72 hours is extremely uncertain.

[PurdueWx80]

A 252 hour forecast is so idiotic. The 384 is just plain stupid. Whoever is in charge of the GFS should just stop making it public. All it does is incite panic. The margin of error is from Virginia to London.

LOL..more like Tokyo to Moscow.