Any chance whatsoever of a Fish storm (for USA)

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Any chance whatsoever of a Fish storm (for USA)

#1 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:58 am

I know as of last Night everyone said no...but with the latest satellite showing more of a WNW jog, I was wonderring if there was a chance the US could be spared and this storm could turn to sea not affecting the CONUS? Any models show this? Probably a long shot but Trying to find some optimism for Fla/US :?:
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#2 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:08 am

Less than 1%.
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#3 Postby Stormchaser16 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:11 am

Not at all
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#4 Postby Innotech » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:12 am

not likely now that its so far south and so far west. its also far below puerto rico, so the chances of reurving to sea now are very slim.
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Re: Any chance whatsoever of a Fish storm (for USA)

#5 Postby USAwx1 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:23 am

Jekyhe32210 wrote:I know as of last Night everyone said no...but with the latest satellite showing more of a WNW jog, I was wonderring if there was a chance the US could be spared and this storm could turn to sea not affecting the CONUS? Any models show this? Probably a long shot but Trying to find some optimism for Fla/US :?:


Anything is possible, but it is unlikely. Remember my post regarding CLIMO for storms which formed near IVAN. There have been three predominant tracks:

1. Into the CARIB/GOM
2. Out to sea (your Fish track)
3. A landfall along the East coast.

Right now given Ivan’s location in the Caribbean, and the fact that it’s at a fairly low latitude, it's not likely that Ivan will re-curve -- avoiding contact w/ the US mainland or for that matter Mexico perhaps. It is taking a track similar to number one which would put anyone from the West coast of Florida/western keys to Texas including Mexico at risk IMO
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#6 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:30 am

:na:
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#7 Postby wx247 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:33 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:Not at all


You sound so confident... I wonder why.

It is possible, but not likely... IMHO it has a better chance of hitting Mexico/C America than recurving out to sea and missing the US. I am not wishing Ivan on anyone, but I think it has USA written all over it again.
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#8 Postby BUD » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:53 am

i think it will hit us somewhere
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#9 Postby BReb » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:59 am

Unless I'm missing something, a couple of the respected models are predicting it to miss the US entirely. So I'd say sure there's a chance it will miss us.
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#10 Postby rainstorm » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:03 pm

maybe it will stall out and weaken
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#11 Postby Stormchaser16 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:06 pm

Uhhhhh theres hardly a chance it will recurve and TOTALLY miss the US now..... yes it can go into mexico or central america, but thats not recurving into a fish storm.... thats virtutally impossible being so far south and still moving w-wnw quite quickly.....
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#12 Postby patsmsg » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:12 pm

Yes. It's possible...although that is looking increasingly unikely.
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#13 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:15 pm

rainstorm wrote:maybe it will stall out and weaken
TRhgat would be awesome :wink:
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