Florida Keys evacuations, and info on Ivan

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Ivan continues to remain a very dangerous buzzsaw this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. The difference between 150 and 160 mph is not that huge since we're still talking about devastation. Looking at Dr. Steve Lyons report last year on being in the wind tunnel at the University of Washington will prove to everybody how strong 150-160 mph winds are.

Even this early in the game, Floridians are not messing around. Mandatory evacuations occurred earlier this morning for none residents or tourists in the Florida Keys. As of 6 PM EDT this evening, all mobile homes are to be evacuated in the Florida Keys. There is a good possibility that by Friday morning, there will be mandatory evacs for residents of the keys as well. A category 3 hurricane or higher if directly impacting the Florida Keys would cause massive storm surge flooding. Better to be safe than sorry to evacuate the keys just in case Ivan does in fact make a direct hit.

As of 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Ivan was centered about 350 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba east of Montanzas.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect for Dominican Republic from Barahona to Perdenales. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwest coast of Dominican Republic from Palenque westward to Barahona.

Hurricane Ivan is moving towards the west northwest at near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On this track, the hurricane will track very near Jamaica by late Friday and near the Cayman Island by Saturday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds at 5 PM EDT are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours. However Ivan is likely to restrengthen back to category 5 status by later Saturday and Sunday as it approaches the Cayman Islands and western Cuba including the Isle of Youth.


Minimum central pressure was 921 mb or 27.20 inches as of 5 PM EDT. However the latest recon report shows 920 mb pressure at this time.

Folks living along the Gulf coast of the United States from Key West up to New Orleans are urged to watch this situation very closely as we advance onto the next several days. The cone of uncertainity exists from Florida all the way to near the New Orleans area. But assuming it goes up the middle of the forecast swath, a track up along the west coast of Florida or towards the Florida panhandle would mean huge problems not only with wind and rain, but tremendous surge issues as well. Something to watch as we advance on through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

Jim